week 1 - 2007

[torero]

Ouch! Lesson learned: don't change timeframes in winners or losers.



I'm going to look to fill the gap here.

[torero]

Not sure if this dropped was news-driven or not but certainly swing trades are tough when it has to deal with news wild swings, something I didn't consider before. Intraday might be my best bet since I'm not good at accepting wide stops.

[pipMonster]

This was indeed a news driven drop. US ISM data was posted this morning and it was $ positive for the most part. The ISM Manufacturing Index was higher than 50 which shows expansion. Construction spending was up also. Two good signs the US economy is not dead. Combine that with better than expected housing numbers at the end of last month and you have some reasons for $ strength.

[torero]

Thanks for the info. I usually don't follow news, but follow when it was to be announced. Swing trading is a bit difficult when interruptions like this break the mood and momentum. I may go back and stay with smaller frames. Good learning experience for $0. Not a bad education eh?

[Anna-Maria]

There are certainly enough opportunities out there every week to satisfy every conceivable style of trading.

What suits one, doesn't necessarily suit another. Experimenting with & exploring options are part of the business.

Horses for courses as they say

[Anna-Maria]

I guess this type of activity will sit comfortably with your outlook torero

Continuation signals on the weak overnight action - failure to penetrate back thru the near term Fib resistance lines - well below the day's main pivot zone - threatening the larger 4hr range supports (9450) & Fib ext targets from the arrowed H-L mini swing down to c9425/9385.

I doubt it will have the strength to climb back towards the Tokyo low @ 9492, given the strength of the penetration bar out of the bear flag pattern. And if this 4hr bottom range collapses, this could weaken pretty quickly.

[pipMonster]

I was fortunate tonight in catching the ride down from 9495 to 9410 for +85 on 1/3 and a scale out at +20 for 2/3. I'm quite happy with this gaggle of pips tonight. I expect this week to be a bit thin still so I'm not trying to turn anything into a swing trade.

Early on I thought I had missed the boat as price climbed up to 9525 from the firm rejection off 9490.

It never ceases to amaze me how quickly things can change in this market. In fact, other than for purely technical reasons, I don't have any idea why price moved as far and as quickly as it did besides residual $ buying from earlier ISM data or re-weighting of portfolios. This can just as easily shoot right back up with a bit of weak data from US ISM, Factory Orders and NFP on Friday.

I guess we'll wait and see.

[torero]

I missed this bear flag completely. There were missing data in Tradestation since FOMC news yesterday and still seeing holds here and there. Hopefully I can get it corrected soon. Big moves and I'm not in it. To be honest, I was a bit how large a move to the other direction for me and wasn't really prepared to go short. But I have to correct this chart before doing anything.

[torero]

Very nice Monster! You got the good end of the trading the news.

[Anna-Maria]

	Quote:	pipMonster
	I'm quite happy with this gaggle of pips tonight. I expect this week to be a bit thin still so I'm not trying to turn anything into a swing trade. In fact, other than for purely technical reasons, I don't have any idea why price moved as far and as quickly as it did besides residual $ buying from earlier ISM data or re-weighting of portfolios. This can just as easily shoot right back up with a bit of weak data from US ISM, Factory Orders and NFP on Friday.

Not a bad stance to adopt under the circumstances Jack! Nice trade btw.

Any slight emotive shift whilst the volumes are returning to near normal levels, will accelerate these nervy runs back & forth thru the range.

The bars & patterns are certainly still playable, especially at the regular range/days extremes etc, & I guess either cautious stake deployment or sensible paring/exits are the order of the day until the markets top up on liquidity!