Playing with the VMAR`s open research

[walterw]

Originally Posted by Armand Walter...the laddering video is awesome. Looks like great potential there. Thanks for including the settings...I look forward to testing it out. I appreciate all your hard work and your willingness to share it...Armand

Originally Posted by michaltrade Thank you Walter and PYenner for your in depth analyses of the VMAR. PYenner.... not a politician!!! Your "grand vision" is only come from a Master Politician. I wish that our leader has your brain.

Thank you guys.. there is lot of work and fun ahead ¡¡... and the final product will be so simple even a 8 years old boy can trade... please all inputs are more than welcome... cheers Walter.

[walterw]

Pyenner : would you like to take a shot on some waco programing ?

its an idea that could be very usefull or just a pure experiment without any use...

this is my great question now... you all now I am a CCI lover... I use a lot of CCI on my timing... right now I am impressed with timing potential of vma... what I was wondering was : how would it look a pyenner vma applied to a cci ¡¡ jejejeje... dont get me wrong I am very curios mind...

now not any cci... but specifically fxsnipper T3 CCI wich already is a CCI smoothed by a T3 average...

Here I atach an image of him :



I draw an imagination of this vma... would it look like that ?

I dont know if its possible Pyenner, also dont want to abuse your good disposition... but do you think this could be possible ? no compromise... cheers Walter.

also attach fxsnipert3 cci..

[PYenner]

Originally Posted by michaltrade Thank you Walter and PYenner for your in depth analyses of the VMAR. PYenner.... not a politician!!! Your "grand vision" is only come from a Master Politician. I wish that our leader has your brain.

Thanks for the support michaltrade
but if your leader had my bucket of bolts for a brain...
bring on the revolution

[PYenner]

Originally Posted by walterw Pyenner : would you like to take a shot on some waco programing ? ... but specifically fxsnipper T3 CCI which already is a CCI smoothed by a T3 average.....

T3 explains 1 bar of lag, good start.
CCI seems to do the opposite of ADX.
ADX filters out the swings and leaves just the trend.
CCI seems to filter out the trend and leave the swings.
+100 to -100 is good start.
It is worth a look at the innards, see what makes it tick.
No promises on where or how it will fit in but see its use in timing.
Will put in on the list but getting zero multi-tasking at the moment.
One thing in the brain kicks everything else out.
Need to make some steps with ADX_VMA first.
Need to test out ADX averaging/smoothing since that is where Igorad seems to have scored over Bemac. A vidya for MT4 was mentioned in a post and that also has to go on the list, should have said so at the time and thanked him, manners, but I already seemed to be saying too much.

I would like to see someone publishing icon/VMA trade log with $, even if they are demo $. Forex gets some bad press and it deserves some, but it is tradable. My system isnt a trade by formula system, so I cant publish it and that means I can't "prove" that forex works. argh.
Icon/vma looks like it can do both.
The scalps are window dressing really, a trader may do them, but for proving the P/L they are not exactly needed.
It will probably come once the steps are in place.

Laddering video said it well.

The explanation for why ADX appears to lead is easy enough in that case you demonstrated.
On that flat line you demonstrated, you drew a flat line across the highs.
If you had drawn another line along the lows, you would have seen the rise that the ADX was reading. It does have a few bars of lag in it but there were enough bars of rising lows to overcome the lag. ADX uses Highs, Lows and close. Looks for trend in both highs and lows. Also looks at where close is in relation to hi and lo.

Cheers

[walterw]

Now I understand Pyenner why would it lead... thats a nice phenomena there...

About the fancy oscilator, its just a waco idea, in the future if you get some inspiration and have energy would be interesting other wise I believe the research right now is on a complete diferent arena... thanks for this synergized collaboration... I am testing diferent inputs on vmas... they really change quite...

about the adx type input, how would they work ? they are set default to 0... are they other numbers /types ? cheers Walter.

[PYenner]

Originally Posted by walterw I am testing diferent inputs on vmas... about the adx type input, how would they work ? they are set default to 0... are they other numbers /types ? cheers Walter.

Mostly worked on "oscillators" that are good for swings but lousy for trends.
Tried to modify them to cope with trends. That class works much the same way, just variations on the basic theme. High, low, close and time are about what you get to play with, maybe volume, but people have been able to extract a surprising amount of variations. You can sort of "lever" the data from different directions to get you closer to whatever direction you are trying to go.

Programmers like inputs that are "bounded", stay within known limits like 0-1, +1 to -1. You know the computer isn't going to crash or have accuracy problems with safe numbers like those. Some signals are friendly to process and others are pigs.

Some have a signal that looks like CCI output but the "zero" mid line doesn't stay on one place, it keeps moving up and down and it melts my brain because it alters all the historical perspective when it does that. So you look at the old stuff, hey that looks like its got something to say, but when you try to trade off the leading edge you find it tells you nothing at all about the future, its useless, it only confirms what you just found out the hard way with no help from the indicator. argh

ADX main output is "safe" 0-100%, usually 20-70%, user friendly, easy to feed it into a VMA or whatever second stage. I gotta wonder if the dude who put ADX and VMA together was a major genius who thought it through before hand or a plug'n'play bit of good luck.

Any indicator in the same "class" as ADX might be tried with our VMA.
An indicator from another class might need some adaption to match its output to the input type that our VMA uses. Our VMA likes 0 to +1, 0 to +100%, like that. Other types that go +1 to -1 need to have the negative part sorted out in some way. Some signals like to hug the middle, some hug top or bottom, you get to figure things out as you need to do them.

One option with CCI that goes plus and minus might be to feed it through an ADX which turns it into just positive. Another way might be to just add 1 to it so it goes from +2 to zero. Depends on what matters, you can lever it different ways.

Fast is important, gotta be fast, lag is blown opportunities, one more pip margin on top of all the others.
Gotta stack good things in your favour and minimize as many bad things as you can. If its a laggy indicator, best to keep looking for a faster version in the same sort of class.

Its difficult to imagine anything being much better at giving "flat" than what we have got but who knows what some lateral thinking might flash up.

I would like a have a measure of a target exit price before entering, your icon is one flag on one bigger trade. The fantail spread/compress is a vague measure, it would be nice to get that as a hard number like 10 pips, 50 pips etc. If you have reason to believe the profit will be higher, you can tolerate risk or drawdown in the early stages. Trading with the trend can be useful in forex for the longer trades, if you have good reason to trust the trend, you can set your tactics accordingly. Hard numbers can be tested to see how reliable they really are. How wide is that fantail, well it depends on how zoomed in or out your chart is, as to how it looks, but is looks good enough?

If you rely on a trend slope, would a hard number on that slope tell you something about future payout?

Like you say Walter, 12 years looking for ADXVMA, needle in a haystack.
Then you go and share it....

[walterw]

I am a strong believer that oscillators should not be used for trend definition... on the other hand I believe oscillators do not necesary outperform other methods... by the contrary oscillators most of the time as leading indicators contain certain amount of noise that can be harmfull to any acct...

What oscillators could have as an edge is the normalized visual scenario for specific timing purposes... the so called binary reading white/black... up/down...

From my experience stochastics was my first love when I got started... they have probably the best leading with less noise BUT with a saturation component that for my surprise cci doesnt have that much... later I started to play on the optimization of cci... did a lot on TS and came with very decent formulations for timing that really got me to certain interesting performance...

the black part of the cci story has been the changes in volatility and how the performance would eventually be hijacked by extreme lead or lag... thats where my curiosity was arround the idea of vma on cci if it would eventually be the case of an "horizontal effect" on the oscillator would be able to absorv this volatility changes and optimize his performance... I repeat its just an hipothesis... dont even know if it could be donned...

Any way, at this point I am focusing on this open research to laddering... great concept... great potential ¡¡ cheers Walter.

[walterw]

On this paralel research I am principally focusing on the Horizontal Effect (HE) and the "laddering" effect it causes... my optimization at this time is focused into timing... I would love to be able to time better my trades, still with the HE concept of absorbing noise on the "erratic pullback"... all this concepts are dealed on this thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...ades-2364.html

So one of the problems I encountered on the other thread has been in some cases: extreme lagging entries...

let me show you some examples of this lag wich I know it can be optimized without loosing the vma HE edge...









you can see in all this cases that the entries could had been done with more anticipation... NOW... HOW ? and still use the vma with its HE edge ?

one of my ideas is arround the "quirurgical" "very specific timing" in 1 min... using smaller inputs on the vma so we can have a more leading signal STILL very clean one on the context of an erratic pullback scenario...

I will take some coffee and keep posting... cheers Walter.

[PYenner]

Thank you for the pix Walter
Thats just what I need for optimizing.
Have to know what question to ask before you can hope to find the right answer.
I am not getting enough chart time at the moment to find these things myself.

[walterw]

Ok.. excellent coffee ¡¡ argentinean ¡¡


you see my base line (blackline) on the vmar 1 min is a Pyenners fantailvma1 with this inputs 2-4-8-0-1...

now if we want to see something of quirurgical precision and still see this horizontal efect, I tried this inputs 1-1-4-0-1 wich means specially that I reduced my adx to 4... mmmm as to Pyenners explanations I would interpret that this new inputs would emulate like looking a smaller time frame...

how does it look ? let me show you alone :



well its the most near to a step ma BUT its NOT a step ma... because the steps are not dictated by price action alone... rather by price action and volatility... now thats a cute piece of moving average representing the real price action as he is also representing whats really going on in his volatility... that blue line is representing a real sustained move not only by price action but also by momentum action... let me tell you guys, this IS a powerfull line if you really meditate on whats behind the calculation...

noisy ? maybe... but remember we are on a CLEAN context looking at our setups on 5 minutes... so lets live the cleaning sanitary aspect to that timeframe... now I need more leading anticipation.. I want to get inside the trade more early.. I want to cash more pips from the begining and dont want to leave so much on the table as I showed on previous examples... (thats why my timing definitions are still on open research)...

Now lets add to this line a simple signal... in this case I add a sma 6 of the vma... how does it look ? :



in this case the white line can help us read more easy a trigger signal and as it is a quite tight signal line we will mostly always have her there to help us click the mouse... its a visual aid into trading its a way to have clear rules, so you can relax more on the process of specific timing decision...

Now lets see this two lines on the 1 min vmar context:



here is where we can start to compare the edge of still having an HE and at the same time we can see how much anticipated is our entry into our trade..

The red circles tells us how this new vma and signal gave a much early entry in comparisson to our classic (black line cross darkgreen line) cyan circles....

on the next post let me show you how the last three icon trades I posted on the other thread could be timed with this possible new method... cheers Walter.