Playing with the VMAR`s open research

[walterw]

Originally Posted by PYenner This is annoying me at the moment. The way 80% of the fantail is showing an uptrend for 80mins while the price actually goes nowhere. Its like it is telling a lie. You have to trade with these things before you find what works for you or against you.

We could call that an annoying pause ¡¡

[PYenner]

Walter

More than a month ago I did an improvement on my own indicator system.
By coincidence, about a month ago the market suddenly got a whole lot more devious and my stress level went nuts.
Well last night thanks to VMA I finally woke up.
Yep left a line of old code in the "improvement" that should have been deleted.
So maybe that nightmare is finally over and I can start being more help with interpreting VMA performance.

Right now I saw the market going into what I call "mischief mode", it alternates fake moves with real moves and keep you totally uncertain about which trend will emerge.

Now when I see mischief mode, the rule is don't enter, don't trust anything until there is more obvious trend and if you are in this market wishing you were out then you have to follow your rules for drawdown and stoploss because you are going to get no signals you can rely on until things start moving properly.

You may know the right word for what I call mischief, here is what it looks like. The good news is that 5min VMA3 was HE at the time, if that usually happens then it will be a good guide for "wait for action".

[walterw]

I am so glad Bruce for all this improvements you are going thru... certainly the HE on 5 min its of great help ¡¡ encapsulating noise of an erratic pause into an horizontal line... can you believe that ? such a stupid thing... but how powerfull it is...

I am also on this state of epiphany... I am on a technical rebirth myself too... the implications of vma are outstanding ¡¡

I see you use the 3rd version on 5 min... what are the diferences where you find more edge than the 1rst version on 5 min ? would like to know.. cheers Walter.

[PYenner]

Walter

Apologies for yesterdays posts, it would be best to ignore them.

The mischief mode referred to in the above post has continued with similarities and differences in later countertrend moves.

I would describe that period as weak trend and high volatility for the amount of trend. To me it seems best suited to either fast scalping or a long slow single trade relying on the weak trend, but only if you have reason to feel you can trust a weak trend.

I would be inclined to trend scalp or stay out.
That is, sell the rise and close fast on the dip, forget the long scalps.
Not good RRR.

One reason I have the "volume" indicator on my charts, is that sometimes these swings get smaller and smaller and the price may slowly move against the old trend. It works as a trap for a trend scalper. Two signs of this trap are swings getting smaller and volume dying away.

[PYenner]

Originally Posted by walterw I am so glad Bruce for all this improvements you are going thru... certainly the HE on 5 min its of great help ¡¡ encapsulating noise of an erratic pause into an horizontal line... can you believe that ? such a stupid thing... but how powerfull it is... I am also on this state of epiphany... I am on a technical rebirth myself too... the implications of vma are outstanding ¡¡ I see you use the 3rd version on 5 min... what are the diferences where you find more edge than the 1rst version on 5 min ? would like to know.. cheers Walter.

Walter
I had also been on something of an epiphany before my indicator turned reality upside down on me.

I did not get time to even demo trade the old version much.
I knew its "insides" were in poor shape, so my effort went into that.
Using the older version, to me it is like driving Fred Flintstones car, you know, no engine, you gotta push it with your feet.

I know that using a different setup from you just confuses things for you and everyone else, but it is the only realistic way for me to analyse VMA3.

For example, when I use #3 on both charts I can expect them to behave much the same way. Often the HEs happen together, which is reassuring.

But sometimes I see 1min HE or nearly and 5min laddering and still moving with a trend that the fast 1min VMA can't "see".

Now that was unexpected, the fast VMA was expected to always lead, but here we have the slow one leading.
So is there an entry/exit rule for this case?
In the case I just saw there was a 15 pip reversal so it was a sign to scalp out maybe. Need to see more cases.

Would it be better to have just two 1min charts but with one zoomed out to look like a 5 min chart and use a slower VMA for that one? It might make my job much easier if both VMAs used the same bar data, I dunno yet.

But if I use #1 and #3 I am comparing apples with pears, there are lots of reasons for the two charts contradicting each other so I learn nothing.

So all I need from 5min is the bigger picture and a general idea of trend strength, I dont need the more standard test of trend that you need.

But to me research has to go in a slightly different direction from the present.
Please talk about this if I am taking things off track.
#========

"encapsulating noise of an erratic pause into an horizontal line... can you believe that ? such a stupid thing... but how powerfull it is..."

That is it, it is "stupid" yet it is a genuinely useful tool, seems a bit impossible.
But then you don't complain because a hammer is stupid, its a good tool for the right job. Strange.

[walterw]

Originally Posted by PYenner Walter Apologies for yesterdays posts, it would be best to ignore them. The mischief mode referred to in the above post has continued with similarities and differences in later countertrend moves. I would describe that period as weak trend and high volatility for the amount of trend. To me it seems best suited to either fast scalping or a long slow single trade relying on the weak trend, but only if you have reason to feel you can trust a weak trend. I would be inclined to trend scalp or stay out. That is, sell the rise and close fast on the dip, forget the long scalps. Not good RRR. One reason I have the "volume" indicator on my charts, is that sometimes these swings get smaller and smaller and the price may slowly move against the old trend. It works as a trap for a trend scalper. Two signs of this trap are swings getting smaller and volume dying away.

Originally Posted by PYenner Walter I had also been on something of an epiphany before my indicator turned reality upside down on me. I did not get time to even demo trade the old version much. I knew its "insides" were in poor shape, so my effort went into that. Using the older version, to me it is like driving Fred Flintstones car, you know, no engine, you gotta push it with your feet. I know that using a different setup from you just confuses things for you and everyone else, but it is the only realistic way for me to analyse VMA3. For example, when I use #3 on both charts I can expect them to behave much the same way. Often the HEs happen together, which is reassuring. But sometimes I see 1min HE or nearly and 5min laddering and still moving with a trend that the fast 1min VMA can't "see". Now that was unexpected, the fast VMA was expected to always lead, but here we have the slow one leading. So is there an entry/exit rule for this case? In the case I just saw there was a 15 pip reversal so it was a sign to scalp out maybe. Need to see more cases. Would it be better to have just two 1min charts but with one zoomed out to look like a 5 min chart and use a slower VMA for that one? It might make my job much easier if both VMAs used the same bar data, I dunno yet. But if I use #1 and #3 I am comparing apples with pears, there are lots of reasons for the two charts contradicting each other so I learn nothing. So all I need from 5min is the bigger picture and a general idea of trend strength, I dont need the more standard test of trend that you need. But to me research has to go in a slightly different direction from the present. Please talk about this if I am taking things off track. #======== "encapsulating noise of an erratic pause into an horizontal line... can you believe that ? such a stupid thing... but how powerfull it is..." That is it, it is "stupid" yet it is a genuinely useful tool, seems a bit impossible. But then you don't complain because a hammer is stupid, its a good tool for the right job. Strange.

Bruce your posts do not disturb... by no means... I think yesterdays post reminded me all the Drumond school I have as backgroud and I really got identified on this concepts...

It is obvious that each trader will find what makes him feel more confortable... when I show my setups, I dont pretend to be followed to the rule, thought I try to present all MY rules as clear as possible not leaving anything out, so if the strict followor wants to follow to the detail, he can be able to do so... on the other hand you can get to see the intrinsic concepts we are dealing here... from there on many traders can start building their own strategies and shaping them to their needs...

What you are explaining above, I believe to understand "some"... in this case I would promote some visual aid as charts with comentaries so we can get to grasp the real concept you are explaining here... I know the core concept here is arround HE`s... and I believe grasping its power can change the course of any traders career... cheers Walter.

[walterw]

Originally Posted by PYenner Would it be better to have just two 1min charts but with one zoomed out to look like a 5 min chart and use a slower VMA for that one? It might make my job much easier if both VMAs used the same bar data, I dunno yet. .

If this could be programmed... and the lines that represent the 5 min vmar could be achieved at least similar on the 1 min... it could be interesting... but still, would the task be worth it ? only experimenting could tell that... cheers Walter.

[walterw]

Originally Posted by PYenner Walter Apologies for yesterdays posts, it would be best to ignore them. The mischief mode referred to in the above post has continued with similarities and differences in later countertrend moves. I would describe that period as weak trend and high volatility for the amount of trend. To me it seems best suited to either fast scalping or a long slow single trade relying on the weak trend, but only if you have reason to feel you can trust a weak trend. I would be inclined to trend scalp or stay out. That is, sell the rise and close fast on the dip, forget the long scalps. Not good RRR. One reason I have the "volume" indicator on my charts, is that sometimes these swings get smaller and smaller and the price may slowly move against the old trend. It works as a trap for a trend scalper. Two signs of this trap are swings getting smaller and volume dying away.

I agree on taking profits when they are there... it may be better bussiness to trade more trades than to hope for big moves... still I am surprised on the case of my "5 min laddering" trade how nice decent moves he gets... and a nice clean exit I will get to describe more later on that thread, that tends to take money in a smart fashion and not a greedy hope style.... cheers Walter.

[walterw]

I have to agree that vma3 on 5 min has its own properties, I need a 30 hours day to be able to test all this particular edge... man so many alternatives here... but in terms of laddering, very interesting indeed ¡¡ cheers Walter.

now I will get some sleep... :zzz:

[PYenner]

Originally Posted by walterw I have to agree that vma3 on 5 min has its own properties, I need a 30 hours day to be able to test all this particular edge... man so many alternatives here... but in terms of laddering, very interesting indeed ¡¡ cheers Walter. now I will get some sleep... :zzz:

Yes same problem for me.
Plus VMA4 will make what difference??? dunno yet.
London open was kinda slow so I doubt if you missed much.
Get a good zzz.