Eurusd 1.50000

[Anna-Maria]

	Quote:	torero
	Seems prices are what drives everyone else to act.

There are many varied & diverse agenda's going on out there at every minor & major level torero. We're talking an awful lot of money swirling around, especially wired into the majors.

You wouldn't believe the waves of activity which are kicked around on some of these pairs just on the back of the rumor mill.

At any concievable moment you'll get a top tier player (or tiered movers & shakers) piling in at a pre-determined level to support a transaction being worked thru the books. They'll also be on the sniff at Option barriers, the European fix & the Asian-European overlap, when the real volumes begin to wind up for the day.

That might be a sovereign entity or a 'shadow shop' (large house) drip feeding a wedge for a specific reason (customer).

You also got fakers & faders constantly at work out there, particularly on & around close focus breakout levels. Aggressive short-term spec pods, both in- house (Bank) & outsource (hedge/cta/major firms) run amok at the big figures, & believe you me, these fella's will cane the numbers in substantial size for peanuts.

Add to that the big fish soaking up all the spare cash off the large timeframe technicals, & you got yourself just a tiny snapshot of what goes on out there in the spot mkt in just one average session.

If you were to magnify one simple zone of activity, be it a round number, big figure, key math zone, blah blah you'd unearth a mish mash of contradictory order flow (certainly 2 way in the most part) washing around the level.

That's why I (& most of my colleagues) don't subscribe to all that marketeer/sales gimmick horseshit.

There's far, far too much going on out there to categorize price flows to a certain sector of the marketplace.

But if that's what folks choose to chew over & digest, then so be it. It's never unduly affected how we operate & it never will. But there are kids out there who will waste a whole lick of time & effort (not to mention $$'s) pouring over all that crud.

[milliard]

"hey Jimmy, Krantzy, anyone??...care to toss your flame extinguishers this end of the room, we all might require to hose her down here in a while"

[torero]

I think it's great to see Anna-Maria like this once in a while, only goes to show how compassionate she is towards the rest of us who are deaf, dumb, blind, mute, etc. being tricked by charlatans and wannabes. She shares similar feelings like many of us who don't want to be swindled. Great post!

[Art Krantz]

	Quote:	milliard
	"hey Jimmy, Krantzy, anyone??...care to toss your flame extinguishers this end of the room, we all might require to hose her down here in a while"

You characters aint having my flame/fire extinguisher for damned sure. Jimmy & the Kiwi are nodding negative too

Anyhow, I thought you were the only whack job up that end?! She's been associating with you cowboy's on the fast desk too much for my liking.

That'll teach you to kick up mischief during the pre-Fed doldrums!!

[cowpip]

	Quote:	Anna-Maria
	But there are kids out there who will waste a whole lick of time & effort (not to mention $$'s) pouring over all that crud.

Woo-hoo! Let'em be shark bait! I'll eat anything green and crunchy.

Cool posts, as always, Anna and Milliard.

They say old Mr. "B"ean works 7 days a week. I find it rather humorous that he wasn't aware of the French bank issues when they cut rates last time (only 8 days or so before todays meeting). I would have LOVED to have been a fly on the ceiling then - or the drywall repairman who had to fix the numerous head-sized holes that were likely littering his well-used office walls the day he heard about Mr. Kerviel's trading life.


Frankly, I don't care which way price goes today. I'll make money regardless of direction. I'd prefer to see them cut by 25 bp today (or less), because that would help ramp up volatility - and I loooove volatility.

[Art Krantz]

	Quote:	torero
	I think it's great to see Anna-Maria like this once in a while, only goes to show how compassionate she is towards the rest of us who are deaf, dumb, blind, mute, etc. being tricked by charlatans and wannabes.

I agree torero, although I'm pretty sure most folks have the ability to see straight through most of all that stuff. I don't think too much of it goes on in here.

We're old school I guess. A lot of our positioning emanates from the Fundamentals & cross market observation. Sure, we hit the phones & do the rounds daily, but that's simply what we've always done. There wasn't always the luxury of computers & electronic speed dial trading. You get a pretty good feel for what goes on out there after a while. These wholesale desks & big hitters know their stuff. Some heavy traffic flows through their platforms on a daily basis.

Experience has taught us that all this new fangled tech nonsense tends not to work too well on the currencies, apart from the hard & fast s&r grids. Compared to alternative markets, the easy trends are small fry & often irksome if you don't know how to negotiate them.

Which is why Anna & a few of us here prefer to work our orders via the big timeframes. We get more bang for our buck & sidestep all the crap which infests the noisey templates.

Plus it's what our customers/clients are used to. To be honest, we'd rather know a large, reputable shop or gaggle of aggressive specs are active or on the move at a certain level, than place too much reliance on airy fairy tech mumbo jumbo.

But, if that's what rocks your boat, all good & well. At the end of the day, if you can fire a couple 5 or 10 mill clips thru the barrel & stay on the right side of the line, then you're home & hosed huh?

[AbeSmith]

Hello fellow traders. Tomorrow morning at 7:45ET is the ECB rate announcement. At the time of this writing, I see EURUSD has droped to support around 1.46. Is this a good time to buy EURUSD in you opinion? I came accross this article

Why Is The Dollar So Strong?

which suggests that the drop to current levels might be too much, like somethig out of the ordinary is going on, and that traders should be careful. Now, it appears that the author has been stopped out a couple of times recently on this move, and I know from personal experience that getting stopped out tends to make one less certain of things. I was curious what you think about the current price level of EURUSD. Was the 2/05/08 drop unusual, like the author suggests? Here is a part of the article which I will quote:

Regardless of the economic possibilities, traders would be well heeled to listen to the advice of Mark B. Fisher, who in his book, “The Logical Trader” noted,

“If a market is making a substantial move and traders seem to understand why, this market trend is not going to last very long. However, if the market is moving in one direction and nobody has a clue as to why, then the trend is going to be prolonged. When a market goes up or down for no apparent reason, it tends to go a lot further in that direction than people can imagine.”

All of the traders probing for a bottom in this most recent down leg of the EURUSD may want to consider those words carefully. While the data continues to point to further EURUSD strength, the price refuses to confirm this analysis and as traders we should respect the message that price is sending.

This is an interesting statement. It made me think: 1. Investors with deep pockets can afford exotic research tools, like detectives, high tech spying, and perhaps simply paying for information. Not saying that is what is going on here. But the statement made me consider that when we see a big move that seems unsuporter by the evidence, perhaps there is something else going on other than a simple honest move. 2. Or perhpas the current move is quite honest. After all, there was recent data about slowing economy in Europe, making ECB rate cuts seem more plausible. Perhaps this is nothing unusual like the author seems to suggest.

[Anna-Maria]

	Quote:	AbeSmith
	2) Or perhpas the current move is quite honest. After all, there was recent data about slowing economy in Europe, making ECB rate cuts seem more plausible. Perhaps this is nothing unusual like the author seems to suggest.

Hey Abe,

You’re certainly much closer to the real reason in your highlighted comments above.

There’s a very clear level of supply up at 1.49.

(4 hour) demand kicks in layered from 1.4520 back to the stronger base at 1.4350, very visible on that timeframe & playable via the smaller (gambling) timeframes if that’s your weapon of choice.

So, you got your range boundaries right there. Price is changing hands inside this upper trend cushion at fair value & won’t get hoofed outside until the Fundamental bias says so.

It will move when the psychology dictates & not before. Europe has it's own conflicting data to deal with, not to mention the jerky economic scenario spewing out of the U.S of late. Currencies are sensitive to the slightest little variable out there & will turn on a dime if threatened.

As long as you have your boundaries from the higher timeframes to work with, you can drill down into your favored templates & pick prices off according to the conditions.

I’d worry less about what some guy (one individual) is spouting off & more about the reactions to the (mass) psychology. After all, that's what drives & dictates prices.

[milliard]

Ecb are hawkish re; rates Abe. They’re commited (as are the BOE) to containing inflationary pressures, but of course are very aware & mindful of the conflicting pressures (growth v/s inflation) which our (US) economy are attempting to juggle.

As Anna-Maria mentioned, when you get contradictory & opposing views & actions surfacing, the differing camps begin squaring up & re-positioning.

This causes turbulance to prices, which in turn results in traders jostling for fair value (regards their positioning) & quite often, prolonged range behaviour until the scenario plays out.

You then witness breakout, often violent in it’s behaviour, especially if the range begins to coil up.

Obviously, if you possess the strategies to navigate these differing trade conditions, then you can shave profit both inside a range as well as in trend mode.

If you don’t got those tools, then you simply have to wait patiently until conditions revert to your preferred method of execution.

But it can be very beneficial if you recognize & understand the background of why prices are doing what they’re doing & what will influence their eventual destination if a certain scenario begins to play out.

That way, you can begin establishing a core position in your favored instruments & not get hustled or shaken out of them prematurely via all the bustle, noise & heightened transaction costs which affect the smaller or gambling timeframes.

One of the benefits I guess of digesting a balanced diet of Fundamental & Technical input.

[AbeSmith]

	Quote:	Anna-Maria
	Hey Abe, You’re certainly much closer to the real reason in your highlighted comments above. There’s a very clear level of supply up at 1.49. (4 hour) demand kicks in layered from 1.4520 back to the stronger base at 1.4350, very visible on that timeframe & playable via the smaller (gambling) timeframes if that’s your weapon of choice. So, you got your range boundaries right there. Price is changing hands inside this upper trend cushion at fair value & won’t get hoofed outside until the Fundamental bias says so. It will move when the psychology dictates & not before. Europe has it's own conflicting data to deal with, not to mention the jerky economic scenario spewing out of the U.S of late. Currencies are sensitive to the slightest little variable out there & will turn on a dime if threatened. As long as you have your boundaries from the higher timeframes to work with, you can drill down into your favored templates & pick prices off according to the conditions. I’d worry less about what some guy (one individual) is spouting off & more about the reactions to the (mass) psychology. After all, that's what drives & dictates prices.

	Quote:	milliard
	Ecb are hawkish re; rates Abe. They’re commited (as are the BOE) to containing inflationary pressures, but of course are very aware & mindful of the conflicting pressures (growth v/s inflation) which our (US) economy are attempting to juggle. As Anna-Maria mentioned, when you get contradictory & opposing views & actions surfacing, the differing camps begin squaring up & re-positioning. This causes turbulance to prices, which in turn results in traders jostling for fair value (regards their positioning) & quite often, prolonged range behaviour until the scenario plays out. You then witness breakout, often violent in it’s behaviour, especially if the range begins to coil up. Obviously, if you possess the strategies to navigate these differing trade conditions, then you can shave profit both inside a range as well as in trend mode. If you don’t got those tools, then you simply have to wait patiently until conditions revert to your preferred method of execution. But it can be very beneficial if you recognize & understand the background of why prices are doing what they’re doing & what will influence their eventual destination if a certain scenario begins to play out. That way, you can begin establishing a core position in your favored instruments & not get hustled or shaken out of them prematurely via all the bustle, noise & heightened transaction costs which affect the smaller or gambling timeframes. One of the benefits I guess of digesting a balanced diet of Fundamental & Technical input.

Thanks Anna-Maria and Millard. I was very impressed by your comments. Seems like you know what you are talking about. Sorry for the late reply. I didn't have anything useful to add, so I will just say thanks.