Busy Day Tomorrow

[torero]

Hi guys,

Just checked the economic schedule for tomorrow. From what I see the rate is schedule to be released at 8:30am ET. Is it me or it's not the normal hour right? Looks like USD, CAD, EUR and GBP will all have their own news. This is probably the first time since started trading currencies I've seen so much news coincided at the same time. Was this intentional?

[Anna-Maria]

Hi torero,

We got UK rates showing as midday London, EU as 12.45 London & the statement at 13.30 (as usual).

Stateside Trade Balance/Unempl Claims are twinned alongside the Canadian Trade numbers, but that's the only dual print I got on my radar today.

[torero]

The data schedule must be wrong then. Seems nothing is moving.... hmmm.

Changing the subject here a bit. I know USD has been the only one taking beating against other currencies. Seems the GBP has been hit hard as well. Is there growing sentiment against the UK economy and the currency itself? The Brits I'm sure are kicking themselves for not having joined the Euro currency or am I assuming too much?

[BlowFish]

The pound has being weak for a while. The only currency it seems relatively strong against is the $. Perhaps its fairer to say the $ is "more weak". I have to say it is starting to concern me as most of my assets are in sterling. One of our major mortgage lenders announced yesterday that housing prices dropped 2.5% last month, the largest drop in 15 years, no surprise there. Of course the rate cut was pretty much anticipated and I would have guessed priced in. Worrying times and I think I should be paying closer attention to what the currencies are doing on a broader scale.

[torero]

I think the real estate market has been the backbone of the growth in Spain but when it's been deflating faster than expected because most don't take into account the GBP being so weak against the €, so the big percentage of tourism and demand from the Brits have been unaccounted for. So everyone is using the word "crisis" already. This is the reason why I'm asking whether the Brits are now tempted to go US or Eastern Europe for holidays rather than the Eurozone.

[Anna-Maria]

	Quote:	torero
	I know USD has been the only one taking beating against other currencies. Seems the GBP has been hit hard as well. Is there growing sentiment against the UK economy and the currency itself?

The Kingdom aren't in such a bad state of health really torero.

Both sets of economies (U.S & UK) are attempting to juggle & balance 2 very real threats to their respective forward book levels: Inflation & growth.

Those twin conflicts will cause awful turbulence as one attempts to wrestle priority from the other. Trouble is, both rank as pretty major soothsayers.

The credit crunch has simply magnified & added to the problem. Sure, UK has it’s internal conflicts to damp down, property valuations being one of them, but that was a balloon ready to deflate even a couple yrs back.

It’ll re-calibrate itself & the Treasury will come through it relatively stable. In the meantime speculators will feed from the trough, which is exactly what they’re primed to do.

The Chief Bank have got themselves a half decent management team in old Merv King & his merry gang of bandits.

Currencies, as with most classes, find their own fair value levels. When the sterling is good & done flushing thru the pipe, it’ll let us know.

Till then, ratchet it back & forth along it’s range boundaries & let the powers that be worry bout sailing the economic ship!

There are some very clear & tradeable levels on the Pound (v/s the buck) to get stuck into. The volatility is also opening the ranges v/s other pairs too, as the respective economies blow-off against each other.

All good food for the speculator & those prepared to cast their lines out

[milliard]

	Quote:	Anna-Maria
	Currencies, as with most classes, find their own fair value levels. When the sterling is good & done flushing thru the pipe, it’ll let us know. Till then, ratchet it back & forth along it’s range boundaries & let the powers that be worry bout sailing the economic ship! There are some very clear & tradeable levels on the Pound (v/s the buck) to get stuck into. The volatility is also opening the ranges v/s other pairs too, as the respective economies blow-off against each other. All good food for the speculator & those prepared to cast their lines out

That's the thing right there Annie Oakley. Absorb enough of the outlying to add a little flavor to the pot. Too much spice & you kill the dish

Folks need to be mindful of overdosing on both technical as well as fundamental diets.

It's all very well understanding & appreciating the complexities of these economic scenarios - but you got to know how you're going to actually trade that info.

Not such an easy transition for most.

[Art Krantz]

	Quote:	Anna-Maria
	Till then, ratchet it back & forth along it’s range boundaries & let the powers that be worry bout sailing the economic ship! There are some very clear & tradeable levels on the Pound (v/s the buck) to get stuck into. All good food for the speculator & those prepared to cast their lines out

The range tiers have certainly worked through the rolling year with easy access markers. This next 2nd to 2nd quarter could well require a lower tier insert before too long me thinks.

Looks like it’s setting up for a fire fight back at the big daddy 1.94 zone.

Those closing daily lower tops don’t make for a good smoke signal at all. Best get your Bull armour out & clean her down Andre, you ole boys might be in for a skirmish or two at the next full moon!!

[milliard]

	Quote:	Art Krantz
	The range tiers have certainly worked through the rolling year with easy access markers. This next 2nd to 2nd quarter could well require a lower tier insert before too long me thinks.

Oh I don't doubt that Arty, I don't doubt that at all. But, along with one or two others, that pair has got a little crowded & cramped inside current range boundaries. Stops have been tripping over each other left & right.

EURGBP has been the far less stressful option to engage Sterling combat.

"Confucius he say: “if prices resemble avalanche on mountain path, retrace steps & walk smoother road"

Don't ya just love that old fella

[torero]

Ha ha! Funny quote!

I've been dabbing with GBPCHF and seems to move a bit better (smaller timeframes, not sure what frames you guys trade from). Lots of spunk. For last few months, this baby has seen some real action, big drops. That's why I asked about GBP or is it the CHF that's seeing strength?