Busy Day Tomorrow

[Anna-Maria]

You sure cornered him at the right time today torero - he's got half a pub of some disgustingly colored liquid mishing his brain structure to pulp. Ewwww

When you're done distributing your pearls left & right mister, you got a bar bill to top up. Move it!

Have yourselves a fab weekend break fella's, hope your week paid a wage - catch y'all later.

[Sledge]

	Quote:	Art Krantz
	The range tiers have certainly worked through the rolling year with easy access markers. This next 2nd to 2nd quarter could well require a lower tier insert before too long me thinks. Looks like it’s setting up for a fire fight back at the big daddy 1.94 zone. Those closing daily lower tops don’t make for a good smoke signal at all. Best get your Bull armour out & clean her down Andre, you ole boys might be in for a skirmish or two at the next full moon!!

Art-
I know this is far back in the thread, but it has stuck with me when I looked at these charts. Am I correct in stating that at your major levels you are drawing the S&R lines right through where the close of one bar and the next open bar forms- regardless of say a down bars "tail" or top reversal bar's "wick" is?

If so this is a huge lesson for me. It is logical, to say the least. I think darn near everyone I have ever seen or tried to learn from would put that horizontal line at the bottom of that "tail" or the top of that "wick"

Most appreciated if you could let me know if I interpreted your S&R lines correctly.
Sledge

[torero]

Sledge, I draw both, at least for lower timeframe use anyway, maybe folks trading 240-min and above look at open/close prices and not so much on tails (I assume these are overreacting emotional bunches with stops being hit). I use the tails to keep in mind the brokers sweeping the stops and move it beyond these tails to avoid getting swept in too.

[Art Krantz]

	Quote:	Sledge
	Art- Am I correct in stating that at your major levels you are drawing the S&R lines right through where the close of one bar and the next open bar forms- regardless of say a down bars "tail" or top reversal bar's "wick" is? Most appreciated if you could let me know if I interpreted your S&R lines correctly.

I look for area’s of activity which have responded to & resulted in price vibration Sledge. If a line chart picks it up or it’s best represented via the extremes on a bar chart then it makes no odds to be honest. As long as I can locate it & plot it on the radar, that’s good enough for me.

Never exclude any option (line or bar) when observing your hot zones.

I’m essentially seeking out confirmation of probable 2 way stop activity. What I do with that information when price arrives there, is wholly dependant upon the structure of the price behaviour at the time & what’s driving it.

Quite often the gap between the close/open & the extremes of a cluster of bars on & around a key s&r level will offer me a channel of interest in which most of the order flow will begin to intensify & react.

To me, support & resistance (supply-demand) isn’t represented by a singular line. The general vicinity which houses each-way traffic is always layered. Strong at the immediate edge of the transactional flow (usually 10-25 pips either side of a round number or well lit level), where the heavy offers will reside at the ceiling…..bids at the floor.

I’m only really interested if this repetative behaviour takes place in & around the area’s I’ve earmarked. I’m also very interested in the behaviour of price as it pops up/down to one of those area’s of interest & backs away.

Where it rests & how it plays out will usually tell me a lot about the potential of the level & whose beginning to flex their muscle.


.

[Sledge]

Art-
WOW, what a post! THANK YOU! That is an unbelievably in-depth answer to my question!

So in essence, folks in your boat really are watching Price Action at certain predetermined S&R levels and the reaction to said price action in say a 25-30 pip range (give or take dependant upon the circumstances) Yes?

Thank you sir!
Sledge

[Art Krantz]

	Quote:	Sledge
	So in essence, folks in your boat really are watching Price Action at certain predetermined S&R levels and the reaction to said price action in say a 25-30 pip range (give or take dependant upon the circumstances) Yes?

You bet we are. Why would be any different to anyone else? We might have a different view of the landscape to you, but it doesn't necessarily make our templates right & yours wrong. We just got different aims & objectives to you is all.

Listen, a level is a level is a level. I see 152.0 thru 52.80 on my long range grid as a potential high value ticket north for an aggressive compound trip. I also view the southbound ticket off the 160.0 thru 61.50 ceiling channel as either a profit booking-encashment opportunity and/or a flip short play.

But the level or zone is also an opportunity for the fast money to hustle their $$'s too. If you're a candle watcher, a vsa slave, a pattern junkie or an indicator druggie you got a previous zone of activity which has resulted in some sort of reactionary play, yeah?

Doesn't really matter (to all extents) how the level is engaged or by what means, just that the savvy players recognize the fact it's played ball before & is maybe worth zooming in on your radar for a closer look. The various methods one chooses to engineer the entry & trade management can then be cranked up & considered.

It might not offer you sufficient risk to climb aboard. Who knows, but I'd much rather be eyeballing & working out my (risk) odds from a level such as this than getting mired & tangled up in no-mans land.

Do you really wanna run your race with all the uninformed, clueless gamblers, chasing their tails inside an obvious action zone? I don't think so. That's where the patience & discipline part of the deal enters the equasion.

I'll try offer an example here of what I mean. I've used the candle as my choice this time as it appears a favorite of folks here. The lower pitch viewed from both the 240 & 15 offer similar trigger alarms, yeah?

Like I say, if you can pitch your odds (risk) to a worthwhile calc & you got upside/downside elbow room, then you're good to trot. How you manage the gig & what kind of targets (if that's the way you operate) you slug for are obviously down to you.

Ok, I come in early today to get some work done, I best get to it.

[Sledge]

Art-
I'm friggin speachless- and I talk A LOT!

The only thing I can comment after offering you extreme thanks is one line in your post:
"Why would we be any different to anyone else?"

The funny thing is- there are a lot of folks who don't get it and don't try to (i.e. the gamblers you spoke of) Some of the folks who DO attempt to understand how the markets work- up until some of these posts always thought this may be true- but never had someone who captain's an Oil Tanker on a daily basis- confirm it.

You just took this from an educated guess or a theory to "Yup, there it is, it was said by someone who really knows what the heck goes on- from someone who sits the trenches daily!"

Who knew this thread would lead to such wonderful and open discussions that would sharpen my trading skills like a Ginsu!
I want to publicly Thank Torero for making one simple observation that has lead us to where we are 7 pages later: "Busy Day Tomorrow" Busy Indeed!

Thank you Art, I know I'm open to more education and am MOST appreciative!
Sledge

[torero]

Yeah I used to use patterns but I find that S/R play out better than pattern for currencies. Patterns still make sense in stocks and eminis (contrasts lie in 24-hr vs market hours instruments?). If you go back to some of Anna-Marie's (trader formerly known as Texx ... or Prince...ss --couldn't help myself. hee hee), she uses 78% fibonacci as are of possible reversal, that's nugget in itself.

I'm glad you found the thread useful but the crux of the work comes from folks AK, AM, and Andre and cowpip too.

[Anna-Maria]

Arty would be the first to tell you that we’re certainly not educators Sledge.

What we do wouldn’t fill a class or seminar for longer than 30 minutes

There are folks in this industry wired tighter into that box than the likes of us.

The basis of what we do isn’t very complicated to fathom at all, & definitely not rocket science. Sure, we might have access to information streams which the average retailer doesn’t, but that in no way guarantees we’ll stay ahead of the curve.

It's nice to have, but not particularly essential to generating consistant profits.

We specialize in a small chunk of a market & merely do the same thing over & over, based upon our collective knowledge & experience.

Everyone here are singing from the same hymn sheet where price action is concerned however.

It's a direct result & consequence of trader psychology Get a handle on that & you can understand better how these key levels are orchestrated by the folks who really push this FX gig up & down the ladder.

We indentify levels & area’s on the map where we know certain groups of players are likely to become active. It’s not difficult to locate these levels, the footprints are big enough to spot.

Once you find the levels & they hold up to inspection, you require a set of tools to get to work on them.

They’re either reversal tools or continuation tools.

Like he said in an earlier post; concentrate, focus & begin to observe carefully the behaviour of price action as it approaches, & backs away from these levels. That will tell you a whole lot about the psychology of the players who are working there.

Once we’ve managed to average or job into a core position, we can then get to work & begin compounding it from a position of strength (value).

But you absolutely got to possess a plan.

You have to know where you’re looking to engage & why. You must have an objective (short or mid term, whatever your preference) & you definitely need to know where the next level of potential conflict (for you) is at, so you can prepare for an each-way option.

As long as you know where price has come from & where it’s likely destination lies (both for you & against you), then you got options. All you got to decide then is whether the level you intend executing from fits your risk profile & offers sufficient value for your stake money.

Pick up where Arty left off with a couple more charts, & you can easily see the kind of road map we follow & where we adjudge the likely reaction levels.

No-one ever knows for sure how price is going to interact with a level when they pull the trigger, but there are 3 things we’re absolutely certain of when stepping up:

1) Where we’re going to bail if the trade begins to get washed out.

2) Where & why we’re going to aggressively add (compound) more fuel to the trade when it does start to rip.

3) When we’re going to peel off or fully encash based on our trusty old reversal or exhaustion signals.

They’re the same reasons & set-ups we’ve always used & will continue to use because they’re based around the psychology of market participants. And that is what drives order flow every second of every day.


ps: I see you're still observing that cool 78.6% assistor then torero good on ya!

another trusty old friend out there in the theatre of war which is the markets

[Sledge]

Anna-
Oh you have no idea the education you folks are providing. To you and the crew, this is probably pretty "common sense stuff" because by now it is all second nature with your background. Just as it is second nature to me to build you a stunning trade show display and pull off a profitable show (my background and consulting business) For me that is easy- but for my clients- it isn't (that is why I get to be paid to teach them)

For your enlightemnent of us, I am truly grateful!
Sledge