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  #191 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2008, 09:38 AM
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Re: Busy Day Tomorrow

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We don’t work outside of the more popular pairs to be honest Kiwi. Not because of anything detrimental, simply because we can spot, work on & benefit from endless opportunities where the liquidity & participation is generally adequate for our needs.
And of course the further you step off the (G3 / G7) beaten path, the more beholden you are to your supply of decent flow information that isn't always easy to come by. I personally don't always know what local bond traders in Poland are up to. Yet they and other similar players often are key drivers of the zloty on an intraday basis.

Just an example, but hopefully you get my drift. Not a reason not to trade E.M. currencies, but you just need to know what you're doing (and maybe have larger pockets on occasion).

My $0.02

GJ

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  #192 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2008, 09:56 AM
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Re: Busy Day Tomorrow

A nice bit of simple technical play straight from the textbook on the EURJPY...
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  #193 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2008, 10:30 AM
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One other question/request. Love the "trigger bar" notations on your analysis (Outside bar etc.) If you feel comfortable, I would love to see more of these when you see fit on your charts.
Hey Aaron

Glad you like it. It's really a very basic, throw away kinda trigger to be honest. I was a little embarrassed to highlight it actually, it's such a like "oh come on baby" kind of set up

You can spot them & simply pick them out of the water all day long across the multi-pair activity. As with any trigger, it's not what you use but where you use it

Another favorite is the 1 & 2 bar reversal, especially via your 60 or 240 reference. Again, as prices jostle & hustle these key turn zones, an aggressive hourly bar (doji with an inside bar...or hammer + doji turn) can jump start a decent run back up/down the price ladder. Marry up these levels with multi-timeframe analysis & you got yourself a cute little box of tricks when opportunity comes knockin.

I used to enjoy playing with a little Bollinger Band/CCi combo on the 15m frame as prices lunged or climaxed & faded off a key round number or previous imbalance zone. That little set-up often manifests itself via an inside bar kick by the very virtue of the level, activity & aggression of participation.

There were 2 cool plays earlier today on the Cable & Euro via that route as prices faded off their respective round number resistance barriers. I'll try haul up the examples later when I can get a screen.

There are bucket loads of triggers out there to engage. Sure, they got to be matched with your aims & style, but you can generally adapt anything to suit as long as you got a decent framework to slot them into.

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  #194 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2008, 10:40 AM
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Re: Busy Day Tomorrow

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And of course the further you step off the (G3 / G7) beaten path, the more beholden you are to your supply of decent flow information that isn't always easy to come by.
You got that right Mister.

Information & familiarity of your patch are good bed partners.

That's a pretty cool nick you got there btw

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  #195 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2008, 10:42 AM
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Re: Busy Day Tomorrow

EUR/JPY price action (or lack of it) pretty unusual given the moves in the greenback against all majors. Sure it's been a model driven, dollar denominated start to NY trading and the week, but still, there's usually a cross play in there when the dollar's moving around, even if it's just 50 points up and down. No-one told EUR/CHF it's just a dollar move for example.

A few dollar sellers are starting to emerge at these levels right now (1.5500/10 eur/usd, 1.0540/50 usd/chf). I'm wondering if EUR/AUD long from here (ard 1.6290) might be an interesting shout. Any thoughts?

GJ

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  #196 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2008, 10:46 AM
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You got that right Mister.

Information & familiarity of your patch are good bed partners.

That's a pretty cool nick you got there btw
Thanks - options related, and a reminder to me of a painful lesson I learned in my early days on a spot desk. Namely, sometimes the best advice is 'Don't think, just trade!'

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  #197 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2008, 11:12 AM
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Re: Busy Day Tomorrow

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Hey Aaron

Glad you like it. It's really a very basic, throw away kinda trigger to be honest. I was a little embarrassed to highlight it actually, it's such a like "oh come on baby" kind of set up

You can spot them & simply pick them out of the water all day long across the multi-pair activity. As with any trigger, it's not what you use but where you use it

Another favorite is the 1 & 2 bar reversal, especially via your 60 or 240 reference. Again, as prices jostle & hustle these key turn zones, an aggressive hourly bar (doji with an inside bar...or hammer + doji turn) can jump start a decent run back up/down the price ladder. Marry up these levels with multi-timeframe analysis & you got yourself a cute little box of tricks when opportunity comes knockin.
Jocelyn-
Heh, Well I wouldn't be embarrassed in the least. As I have let on to some of your co-workers--To you, doing this day in, and day-out, it probably seems elementary to you. But for some of the folks who have not ever been able to sit in the chair that you folks do- it is a very nice way for us to see how your minds work. I.E. What is it that the day-in, day-out trader who has their arse on the line every single day have to see in order to say "oh come on baby" to enter.

So I personally appreciate seeing the thought process or the "trigger"
Aaron

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  #198 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2008, 11:17 AM
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Re: Busy Day Tomorrow

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I'm wondering if EUR/AUD long from here (ard 1.6290) might be an interesting shout. Any thoughts?
It’s been dire right from the off (apart from the pops off the top on Eu & Cable). Andre’s (milliard) on the Jap thru 103.90 as it yet again bounced that congestion area from back in May. Apart from that it’s a non-event day here.

I don’t really like the look of that EU/AUD long Gamma. Those prev 2 daily bars are angry looking critters. Seems like they want to see the color of those underside stops to me.

I’d prefer to see a little higher low block building (at least via the 15/30m) exercise going on with that pair before committing, but that’s just me.

That’s a nasty looking hourly descent there don’t you think?

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  #199 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2008, 11:28 AM
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Re: Busy Day Tomorrow

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A few dollar sellers are starting to emerge at these levels right now (1.5500/10 eur/usd, 1.0540/50 usd/chf).
Anna-Maria reckons real money (asset mngrs) $ buyers started sniffing earlier as prices backed off the highs.

Time to sell $$'s again then huh

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  #200 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2008, 11:58 AM
Jocelyn is deftly picking your pocket

 
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Re: Busy Day Tomorrow

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To you, doing this day in, and day-out, it probably seems elementary to you.

But for some of the folks who have not ever been able to sit in the chair that you folks do- it is a very nice way for us to see how your minds work.
Let you in on a little secret. I got 3 maybe 4 hardline technical set ups - period. To be honest anyone could make a very good living off 2 if you use them correctly.

We got friends & family who sit at home with a 3-4 screen combo...couple Grade A set ups & their favorite handful of pairs.

They spend most of their time sitting on their hands. Couple times during the week along comes a sweet little thang & they hop on it.

If it dies, they get the hell out & wait for the next one. If it don't, they run the son of a bitch as long as they can & hop off again.

It's mostly 60 & 240m template signals with a 15m for picking off the cherries.

The chair is irrelevant. It's what you do when you're sat in that counts, & that chair can be in any place you like

Like our Poppa often reminds us: "in this business less often = more"

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