Busy Day Tomorrow

[Jocelyn]

You wouldn’t want to see what’s inside my mush of a brain Sledge. God almighty, there must be half the contents of the alco-pops production line swilling around up there. Those cells are definitely running on borrowed time.

I’ll steal a leg in here before my other sister (Tessa) arrives, she’ll hate that I sneaked in & bagged a couple brownie points ahead of her

Lets take a snook at yet another example. There are plenty out there every week. We'll use this grid map on the GY & put a little meat on the bones. It’s not difficult at all to set your stall out & get a run on events, my big sis has offered up a good few insights on here recently.

As always, the Daily-240 will give you a little outer edge structure as far as the major grid zones are stacking up (as per the graphs on prev post). Anna-Maria & Andre have covered a good chunk of it already, so it’s variations on a theme to be honest.

Once you got the area’s or zones snagged on your radar, it’s simply a case of matching up your favored triggers/set ups & ensuring you’re striking in harmony with your risk management jotter.

So, looking at this most recent reaction zone on the Daily graph (red border @ 200.0) ideally you want to be buying from those selling into a level where demand exceeds supply. We got a good idea this stacks up from the immediate zone of previous activity to the left on & around mid April.

Price formed another higher low leg having been pitched from a level where supply overwhelmed demand (most recent green grid).

We’re in limbo on this pair at the moment, inside range crosscurrents, but you still got pretty clear lines of engagement to execute should an opportunity present itself according to your strategy model.

Inexperienced or novice punters will usually attempt to execute way too late or jump on a fast moving train (generally as prices are approaching supply-demand camps). Those are the sweethearts you want to be transacting business with, & by structuring your trades where previous area’s of imbalance have changed hands, you’re increasing your chances of obtaining value whilst minimizing risk.

You’ve got clear upper-lower boundaries to work with & more importantly, you can readily & calmly assess when to cash in your hand if events turn sour. You can also manage this activity even if you’re executing via a micro timeframe (1-5-10min frame), because you’re operating from a well structured & defined template.

The outlying (marked) levels on this Daily GY graph, as well as the other highlighted zones on the previous posts graphs, can remain there until prices hustle them again. Those are my personal interest levels & they're the zones I'll be honing in on to pick off any weak links in the price chain.

Right, that's enough from me for one day - time to go dancin & drinkin!!

[mister ed]

	Quote:	wasp
	Some absolute gems in there and I'm just going to read it all again and see if there's much/anything I can even add

Have to agree with you Wasp - this is a fantastic thread. It has been carried along by Milliard, Anna-Marie & Art (and Sledge for getting the ball rolling), and thanks to their great work is now attracting more fine contributors.

[Kiwi]

Yes, My thanks to the posters too - both answers and questions.

I'm a good sub-5min index AsiaPac Futures trader looking to add longer term forex to my game and I appreciate the information in this thread. Thanks guys. Much appreciated.

One question:
In your search for good opportunities and strong vs weak pairs to trade which currencies do you look at and which currencies do you discount? Any insights as to why would be greatly appreciated too

[Art Krantz]

	Quote:	Kiwi
	One question: In your search for good opportunities and strong vs weak pairs to trade which currencies do you look at and which currencies do you discount? Any insights as to why would be greatly appreciated too

Thank you very much indeed Kiwi & mister ed for your kind references.

Kiwi;

One of my regular (technical) port of calls is to the Dollar Index to see what that’s up to. It’ll offer a snapshot of $ weakness v/s strength. You might then choose to cherry pick your candidate of choice if it's playing ball & quickly then proceed to leaf through the appropriate pairs to adjudge a likely opportunity.

For instance, if the buck is weak v/s the basket, I’d want to be homing in on the candidate which is displaying the dominant & aggressive behaviour patterns.

If it’s the Pound, then I’ll trail through the cross instruments associated with the Pound to locate whether it’s also a Pound story (of strength) or exclusive to the buck.

I’m always on the hunt for value v/s risk. I want an easy life wherever possible. If the buck is mired in heavy range traffic, then I’ll look outside for maybe a decent cross opportunity.

Perhaps sniff out a Yen (v/s it’s crosses) or CAD (v/s it’s crosses) or Swiss (v/s it’s crosses) maybe an Aussie (v/s it’s crosses) story.

It’s not always just about the U.S Dollar. There’s a big wide world going on out there & all these Central Banks & treasury houses have their own internal agenda’s to juggle.

I like to trawl through my pairs on a regular basis & pick out minor & major trend candidates setting up. I don’t exclude anything.

I’m looking for consolidation behaviour, potential breakout candidates & possible reversal (into supply-demand grid territory) potential. Basically any area or zone which I determine is displaying a potential imbalance opportunity.

I realize fundamental information & newswire chatter isn’t everyone’s favorite biscuit, but we all work that ticket too. You can pick up some very good reasonings behind near term directional flows via that route, especially the validity of a particular level or zone of interest (strength of bid/offer currents etc).

To me, it’s a complimentary balance of views. I don’t give either one (techs or fundies) priority, rather try to see each sides point of view & use that info to offer me an edge at that specific time.

Trading is all about separating the wheat from the chaff. It’s a constant merry-go-round which changes by the hour. I try not to hold opinions or fall in love with a pair.

I’ll just as soon stop & reverse or scratch a trade which has soaked up a good few hours of analysis if the reasons for taking a view are no longer valid.

I hope that helps some. I also hope some of our newer friends begin to add their 2 cents into the pot

[Kiwi]

Thanks Art,

Do you guys look at thing like the kiwi, the norwegian kroner, zloty etc etc, or just the biggies? I ask because I was setting up a group to look at for a 4/24hr strategy and was going to use:

eu, gu, au, us, uj, ej, gj and uc (s=swiss franc, c=cad)

The major change that I've taken from this thread is to include all the crosses and cherry pick the current best opportunities. When you read the forex specific boards there is a lot of discussion about what I would consider very minor currencies and I have been questioning my choice to stick with the bigger liquid options.

[Art Krantz]

Depending on your specific strategy models, I’m sure you’ll unearth your fair share of opportunities stringing your line across those candidates.

We don’t work outside of the more popular pairs to be honest Kiwi. Not because of anything detrimental, simply because we can spot, work on & benefit from endless opportunities where the liquidity & participation is generally adequate for our needs.

We make most of our money on the back of the ill-informed & naïve herd mentality at consistent levels of conflict. In other words, where folks buy when they ought to selling & sell where they ought to be buying. There’s a whole industry generating sack fulls of wonga based around that one simple concept

It therefore makes sense to focus on those instruments where “the herd” are likely to congregate & transact their regular business.

If you’re a competent, successful micro timeframe player on your current array of instruments, then I doubt you’ll find life too daunting or difficult as you cast your net into the FX sea.

The principles of supply-demand…support-resistance & common sense patience & discipline aren’t exclusive to one asset class as far as I’m aware?

Just try everything out & see for yourself what works best for you my friend.

[milliard]

	Quote:	Jocelyn
	.....& by structuring your trades where previous area’s of imbalance have changed hands, you’re increasing your chances of obtaining value whilst minimizing risk. You’ve got clear upper-lower boundaries to work with & more importantly, you can readily & calmly assess when to cash in your hand if events turn sour. You can also manage this activity even if you’re executing via a micro timeframe (1-5-10min frame), because you’re operating from a well structured & defined template.

Good post missy.

The above price levels, area's & zones you make mention to would benefit those traders who like to incorporate indicator divergence aids to assist in their trade development & management.

They'd undoubtedly experience increased profit returns on their stakes if they focused on lining up their preferred div triggers at the key reaction points on the tech graph.

If you can also use the directional bias or short-term flows to your advantage if one exists, then you really begin to ramp up the profit v/s loss potential of the deal.

Quality of execution over quantity (risky, unecessary multi-round trips) definitely holds the aces when determining value v/s risk on the micro timeframe map.

[Sledge]

	Quote:	Jocelyn
	As always, the Daily-240 will give you a little outer edge structure as far as the major grid zones are stacking up (as per the graphs on prev post). Anna-Maria & Andre have covered a good chunk of it already, so it’s variations on a theme to be honest.

I think this is wonderful- it is the repetition of the information in a live setting that reinforces the learning (for me anyway) So Thank you for your "take" on it, it helps tremedously for all reading the thread.

	Quote:	Jocelyn
	Once you got the area’s or zones snagged on your radar, it’s simply a case of matching up your favored triggers/set ups & ensuring you’re striking in harmony with your risk management jotter. So, looking at this most recent reaction zone on the Daily graph (red border @ 200.0) ideally you want to be buying from those selling into a level where demand exceeds supply. We got a good idea this stacks up from the immediate zone of previous activity to the left on & around mid April. Price formed another higher low leg having been pitched from a level where supply overwhelmed demand (most recent green grid).

Very nice representation of your "Zones"

	Quote:	Jocelyn
	Inexperienced or novice punters will usually attempt to execute way too late or jump on a fast moving train (generally as prices are approaching supply-demand camps). Those are the sweethearts you want to be transacting business with, & by structuring your trades where previous area’s of imbalance have changed hands, you’re increasing your chances of obtaining value whilst minimizing risk.

Ahh yes the herd, one thing we all hope to not be a part of
Thank you again for your take, it is most interesting that the end goal and results are the same, and yet the way it is viewed in one individuals head vs. another is different. When YOU personally look for your trades, you see the same "zones" but in your head you are seeing the set-up in your brain slightly different graphically. Very nice. Very nice indeed!
Aaron

[Sledge]

	Quote:	Art Krantz
	We make most of our money on the back of the ill-informed & naïve herd mentality at consistent levels of conflict. In other words, where folks buy when they ought to selling & sell where they ought to be buying. There’s a whole industry generating sack fulls of wonga based around that one simple concept It therefore makes sense to focus on those instruments where “the herd” are likely to congregate & transact their regular business.

Art-
I just have to smile at this post. "Sack fulls of Wonga" I think I'll adopt that phrase into my daily vocabulary!

To anyone out there who thought when Tom Williams said nearly the same thing and that he was some "crazy old man" There it is- in black and white- blunt honest truth!

Well put sir!
Aaron

[Sledge]

	Quote:	Jocelyn
	Once you got the area’s or zones snagged on your radar, it’s simply a case of matching up your favored triggers/set ups & ensuring you’re striking in harmony with your risk management jotter.

My editing window closed on me. One other question/request. Love the "trigger bar" notations on your analysis (Outside bar etc.) If you feel comfortable, I would love to see more of these when you see fit on your charts.
Thanks!
Aaron