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Old 10-13-2007, 01:17 PM
RAVIN RAVIN is offline
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Re: [VSA] Volume Spread Analysis

Very sound analysis WHY?
Those bars look small on 5min timeframe compared to the previous bozo etc, however we have to remember that these bars be it 30minm 5min, 2min are merely slices of a continuous stream of ticks of an ongoing auction., so size is relative,

If you take the same setup, backtest it and keep track of it in future plus the time of the day, when the market is moved down or up quite significantly, plus the confirmation bars after the signal , all add up to a low risk opportunity. Waiting for more confirmation and then entering would be chasing the market and would be arbitrary and inconsitent with any strategy that was developed around such setup. Pulling the trigger on the signal and trigger bar which closed below the signal bar was right if that is your setup and strategy. Majority of the time this setup and the rules of the strategy yield far more profit than the losses incurred when the trade does not pan out
It was an Opportunity because market had shown considerable weakness in the background which was not going to just disappear.
Low Risk because the stop was placed over 5bars back around 8106, (8pts max which is $250, my risk limit)
You are spot on regarding Tom's take on any signs of strength appearing subsequent to the weakness that would signal a rapid rise.

For your benefit here is a 30min chart as well, wonder if that provides more context for your decision
Attached Images
File Type: gif 30min Bar chart.GIF (31.2 KB, 25 views)

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