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Old 10-08-2007, 01:07 PM
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Re: ES Trading for 10/8 thru 10/12 2007
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12pm update of my thinking -- would be curious to hear others.

Fridays high is starting to look like an 'excess high'...

so there are 2 options here:
1) a new down auction began and just ran down -10 pts off 70.25 Friday PVP -- could run further but also could be long in the tooth.
or,
2) this morning was just a shakeout move down to get the weak longs out and the up auction is ongoing and could re-ignite in the afternoon session.

#1 seems more likely but that is just a guess. location close to the 58.00 high-volume area along with potential upside residual momentum left-over from friday argues for a long entry somewhere not too far above 58.00 and play for a re-test of Friday high... if we do re-test and make lower high --- that would then be bearish. until then though, still considering the long-side if a short-term entry presents itself and 1558.00 support is not too far beneath the entry.

attached is simplified PVP summary
Based on the relationship of Friday's close and today's open and similar occurances during the past 10 years, that 1558.00 area has 75% chance of holding

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