Reading Charts in Real Time

[patrader]

15m 6B

[Plaste]

Sorry to post after the fact but always forget when I'm in the middle of setting limits and so on and just wanted to get the ball moving. Here's a trade I'm currently in. Long Euro $ cash at 1.3624, stop 1.3591, limit 1.3681. Stop to b/e at first green line.

Well that all took so long stop is now 1.3625.

[Plaste]

Originally Posted by Plaste Sorry to post after the fact but always forget when I'm in the middle of setting limits and so on and just wanted to get the ball moving. Here's a trade I'm currently in. Long Euro $ cash at 1.3624, stop 1.3591, limit 1.3681. Stop to b/e at first green line. Well that all took so long stop is now 1.3625.

Out for + 1 tick. Maybe should have taken profits when price quickly rejected 1.3655. Any comments or suggetions welcome.

[DugDug]

Hi Plaste - you just hit the age old - do i take profits or not - I know you posted in the other thread I started.
Answer so far for me - completely up to the individual - so long as the process becomes consistent. There is nothing worse than taking profits on the runners, and then not taking profits on retracements.
Thales seems to ratchet up the trailing stop much quicker than many so is that a take profits or a stop?

Either way my thoughts on the EUR are to continue to look for shorts - however on saying that the 15min chart is showing signs of bullish resilience - overlapping highs and lows so I am sitting out and waiting. I still feel it needs to fall a little to make a higher low prior to rallying if thats what it is going to do.
GBP 15m - looks like a choppy rally - looking to sell a spike above 1.5150, or a break down of the small channel upwards.
Es and FESX - all wait and see - potentially bearish for a quick job trade but not doing anything today.
(no charts as I am switching a few things over today)

[Kiwi]

DugDug has the key point: "so long as the process becomes consistent"

Whatever you do you shouldn't leave it up in the air. If you do that you will probably follow the majority into the path of picking the wrong one each time. Under stress (live trade, lots of money ticking up and down) you do not make the best decisions.

Have a plan. Execute it. Accept that every alternative will cause some form of pain at least half the time if you hope/want/wish to optimize each trade. And instead congratulate yourself on consistent every time execution.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by Kiwi Have a plan. Execute it. Accept that every alternative will cause some form of pain at least half the time if you hope/want/wish to optimize each trade.

Two good posts from Kiwi and Dug Dug>

I have posted plenty of trades here where I have been taken out on my trailing stop only to watch price then zoom off in favor of the trade for an additional 150 ticks (such as happened Sunday night when I shorted at 1.3649 and my trailing stop took me out f the trade at 1.3630, and then price dropped steadily over the next few hours to 1.3460 or so. I have posted other trades, such as yesterday, where my trailing stop takes me out of a short just 8 ticks off the low before price reversed higher. I do not know which trade I should hold and which I should tighten stops on, so I trade each position of like degree the same.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by Plaste Out for + 1 tick. Maybe should have taken profits when price quickly rejected 1.3655. Any comments or suggetions welcome.

I would think that any longs initiated up here ought to be trailed with a tight stop or have a fairly close profit target with a rsting limit order. Here is why I think so:

I would suggest that anyone trading the 6E/EURUSD using 15 minute or shorter time frame for his or her main trading to chart will find it helpful not to lose sight of the big picture. A four hour view of the EURUSD shows that after the most recent down leg, price has entered a sideways range, and it is currently trading at the top of that range, thick with resistance up to about 1.3700. My approach would be that any longs be taken near the bottom of that range, and to look primarily for shorts at these levels, unless there is an upside break and hold of the 1.37 level. If I were enticed into a long at this level, it would be with small, 20-50 tick profit targets and tight trailing stop loss.

Also, this is NFP week, so at any moment (and it may already have happened as of yesterday) the 6E will likely slip into a coma and become a true scalper's product until Friday morning. It may yet, of course, break out prior to the number. It may yet test the lows of the range again. Or, it may simply rest, consolidating up here at the upper end of this range. The One Trillion Dollar question is this: Is this range between 1.3400-1.3700 going to yield to a continuation or a reversal of the downtrend? I do not know, and neither does anyone else. So, for now, I will play the current range - short the top, long the bottom, beware the midpoint.



Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

If you're still here plaste, here are two long opportunities in hindsight from your morning and from my last night (as in I was sleeping when these occurred).

In each case, I see a perfectly acceptable long opportunity, but since each was taken near the top of the current range as defined in my above post, I would have exited the entire position at the green line, which would typically have been PT1 where I'd only exit 1/2 and leave half on for a higher PT2. When long near a top, my expectations are less than if I am long near a bottom.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[richbois]

my reply is definatly in hindsight since I dont trade FX very often. But let me explain why TTT may have help take the profit at 1.3655.

Today is a Sell day and as such we should expect a rally that started on the Buy day low (yesterday) at 1.3433 I have 2 different ways to calculate what the average rally should be.

One is based all the data since Jan 1, 2008 and that TTT rally would take you to 1.3615
Second is based on data of the last 20 cycle or 3 months Called TTT MA that is at 1.3550

The rally was mostly accomplished on the Buy day. The Sell day opened at the TTT Rally level and tried to continue higher causing a penetration of the Buy Day high.

The average MA penetration takes you to 1.3660 and the regular to 1.3703

So for me TTT would dictate that some profit should be taken at the 1.3660 level

Also most Sell days where the rally has been mostly accomplised on the Buy day, ends up being a confusing day. What I mean by confusing day is that they are usualy see-saw days.

I hope that helps expalin how I would have used TTT in this situation.

[Plaste]

Thanks for the comments folks.
I took the trade for the following reasons:

1. On my 15 tick range chart we had a breakout to the downside of a bull flag that was rejected at nearby resistance (yesterday's 1.3549).

2. I'm currently looking just at the pound, yen and euro for daytrading and the euro looked stronger than the pound and the yen was just choppy.

3. Trade was early in the (european) morning when any decent move might be expected to develop.

4. It felt right! My paper trading of this style of trading suggests that using a little intuition can be useful, not so much for initiating trades but for avoiding them.

Target was the resistance Thales refers to. And the fact that this trade didn't go anywhere suggests we may be near a top or chop zone. I'm on the sidelines for the time being.

Thanks for the comments about NFP, Thales, you pre-empted my question.

Tom.