Wolfe

[hunterhumility]

ww for today on a 10 minute bar chart of esm8

[Tasuki]

	Quote:	OAC
	If you extend line 2-4 and 1-3 into the future, they will intersect. Sorry for the confusion, but it is right out of Bill Wolfe's book. Think of it as two drunken sailors running into each other.

Ah yes, I see what you mean. This is the ETA line, and as Waveslider has correctly pointed out much earlier in this thread, that line doesn't always work out. In fact, my experience is that one should mostly ignore it. Perhaps it is necessary for a proper "Wolfe" wave---since Bill Wolfe discovered it I guess he can make any rules he likes, but I think the rules for the psychology of the pattern suggest that one should be a little flexible with the construction of the wave, Wolfe or not.

[OAC]

	Quote:	Tasuki
	Perhaps it is necessary for a proper "Wolfe" wave---since Bill Wolfe discovered it I guess he can make any rules he likes, but I think the rules for the psychology of the pattern suggest that one should be a little flexible with the construction of the wave, Wolfe or not.

Can I make the assumption that you are not going to shell out $3000.00 USD for his course of instructions ?

[waveslider]

Interesting stuff going on in the markets. Everyone is sooo eager to jump in and short, the move up was done on such OBVIOUSLY low volume..

But what we've seen is these expansion patterns suggesting volatility is increasing.

The point I'd like to make is regarding the inter-market relationships between mid-caps and small caps vs. the S&P.

I know this is slightly off topic of wolfe waves, but I'll bring her back around..

Check this chart and notice that on this last move higher, the RUT is showing relative strength to the SPX. The MACD of this relationship is trending higher. Today in particular, small caps were outperforming.

Small caps are usually the first to go in a sell off, as the flight to quality moves money to big cap dividend payers.

Looking at the difference between the Russell and the other indices is striking.. This is a major red flag folks.

There was a lot of volume in all markets this afternoon, and while the Russell is in a confirmed downward sloping channel (red), there is a potential WW here. I am using a slightly modified 1-4 line as I believe the spike through it was a distortion. I like to use trendline points that have low volatility.

The 1-3 line is a point where the market should have accelerated even further. It might be a little early to call this a buying op, my systems are saying buy.

Comments>?

[OAC]

	Quote:	waveslider
	Interesting stuff going on in the markets. Everyone is sooo eager to jump in and short,

Everyone was eager because the Fed came out at 2pm EST and spooked the market by hinting no more rate cut and possible rate hike is coming soon due to dramatic pickup in inflation

[waveslider]

but isn't that almost certainly priced into the market by now? Seems like it has been discussed quite a bit. There is the possibility of bigger players taking out stops. Highest volume today in almost 2 months.
Nice steep channel created a great short trade today, hope some of you caught that...
Wonder if that was a capitulation, or just the start of the action?
Check this out - 2 wide range bars right in the same spot. Wonder what that means? Where are the candle junkies?

[OAC]

	Quote:	waveslider
	but isn't that almost certainly priced into the market by now?

I guess you don't look at the intrady tick charts. Like 200 ticks or less ?

[OAC]

	Quote:	OAC
	I guess you don't look at the intrady tick charts. Like 200 ticks or less ?

There is a lot of Wolfe Waves on the intraday tick charts, sometimes 3 or 4 in a single day ! Lets say you only look at 60 minute charts or higher. You are lucky to see a handful in a month. So in the course of a year, guess who is going to be more proficient ?

[waveslider]

Ha ha ! (I look at 300 tick) Good point, and the market will do whatever it does - whenever it wants for whatever reason. Usually to make the majority lose money!
It was time for volatility to start cycling back into this market. It's starting to get interesting again.

[waveslider]

OAC - -> # of trade opportunities doesn't necessarily = trade profits!. Right?
I trade off of 10 minute charts and daily charts, and I hedge using QLD on the 300 and 900 tick. I don't even trade WWs, but I do watch them to understand market structure.

When you say proficiency with WWs as far as experience - you're rite about quantity of trading. Personally, when I overtrade I lose money. I also get into some weird kinda mesmerization... I prefer to relax and let the opportunities come on the higher time frames, then zero in. You know? But if you can watch those tick patterns form on the low time frames, you must like the adrenaline.