Quick poll - will the market do something the rest of today! (Mon, 5/7)

[notouch]

That would be interesting. I usually trade straight off of the big economic numbers e.g. last Friday's NFP. There tends to be an initial spike but then it follows through for the rest of the day. Like you say, go with the flow.

[Soultrader]

What happened that day was interesting. Both the buyers and sellers stepped off the bid/ask. Usually the bid/ask is 1000+ cars thick. Approx 2 minutes before the numbers this thickness decreased to less than 20-30 cars at the bid/ask. The moment numbers came out, buyers just withdraw their bids dropping prices over approx 32 ticks. I am not sure how many lots traded at each price on the decline but i am assuming it wasnt alot until it hit below 111. After that it was a full on rally that continued on the rest of the day and the following. The bonds are currently trading above a key resistance at the moment and I am looking for longs today.

[bakrob99]

Hi Notouch ....

With that much cushion in your YM trade ... how many points of a stop loss have you carried for the past month... Have you been trailing it up or just watching the rise for any change in direction signal? or do you use a stop loss?

[notouch]

bakrob99 I don't use trailing stops because they tend to take you out at the worst levels I find. I'm looking for signs of a reveral like an exhaustion spike to start scaling out of my position. I haven't moved my stop so it's currently over 1000 points away.

[notouch]

Soultrader, that was definitely a very unusual thing to happen. There was a period this time last year when the bonds started moving 30 seconds before the NFP number. It happened about 3 times and led to a Department of Labor investigation. What happened last Friday was weird because the number was very obviously bullish for bonds but the spike was down. This guy Bonds says there's a rumour that a fund or firm inputted the wrong number into its system which sounds like a likely explanation to me. This is why I always listen to NewsStrike when trading currencies or bonds because bonds especially will always follow the fundamentals.