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Old 09-17-2007, 12:21 PM
Dogpile Dogpile is offline
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Re: A Mechanical Strategy Journal

waveslider, cool -- I hope you stick around to offer some ongoing commentary.

<<The chart you put up has the system going sideways (commissions included?) for over a year. Most people would drop the system or over-ride it in that time.>>

a good system is probably cyclical. it might be a 'go-with' after it draws down for a while -- especially following the significant run it had earlier

<<I think the problem is where you said "I may even skip signals if Market Profile context or something else strongly favors it". >>

This is why I stated that I am not a mechnical trader.

Let me elaborate. I believe in discretionary trading whole-heartedly. I am a 'pattern-guy' --- but I do like statistics.

Obviously, I could build 5 filters into Arts code and try to have various switches and end up with a super complex system which I wouldn't have to override much... But that wouldn't be consistent with what I believe in.

If I see something like a downside 'breakaway gap' -- I am not going to go long the next day because the system advises such -- its only doing so because you are 'low in the 9-day range.' The idea here is to just think hard about what the system is saying and whether given the 'structure' of the market, it is a 'go-with' or not.

In my opinion, the market is just too complex for someone like me to build some supersystem. That said, I do think their are exploitable statistical biases. So I am doing this experiment. I am keeping the system super simple and using right-brain thinking in conjunction with it. I freely admit this goes against what Art advises. I just don't agree with Art that being 100% mechanical is the best way to go.

Art suffers very, very significant drawdowns -- but his returns are excellent. I wouldn't mind increasing my drawdowns a bit for incremental returns. This is why I am doing this...

attached is todays 'system entry'.. I actually covered my own short for a 3.5 pt profit just above where this system went short --- so goes to show how I am using this so far...
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Last edited by Dogpile; 09-17-2007 at 12:46 PM.