[weiwei]

Market acts in a non-linear form, for years, mathmatians have being trying to solve non-linear problem, If it can be solved, those big investment firms would have paid what ever price to get it. but so far it remains a challenge for them.

Since so far it has no solution to solve a non-linear form, then next best thing they come up with is quant fund which is to build a model, with some assumptions that gambler's ruin would have 1/1000000 chance of happening(I made up that number, but the logic is that it is small enough that it would not happen).

"gambler's ruin" - It is gurantee 100% to happen if you play it long enough, no matter how small the chance it is.

any good statistian knows about this rules, and guess what, with more and more quant funds out here, the "gamble's ruin" that will go against them gets bigger and biggers.

Another other thing about building a model, it can never formulate all conditions into its mathmatic formulaed model. To make long story short, Non-linear form can not be solved by mathmatic, thus market action can not be solve by any mathmatic. Given it long enough time, it will run into that "Gambler's ruin" condition.

weiwei