MC's House of Mirrors

[MC]

Here's the thing...this appears to be net -30 point slippage on 49 trades which is probably not that bad but I don't like the limit orders they are showing.
Why, because I only do OSO bracket orders and the exits are all stop market orders not limit as indicated on the uncounted trades. So I have no way to gauge slippage on any "limit" order which seems all too convenient for Tradestation. Also they have market orders that show no stop price which I can't factor for.

The other dilemma is their commissions which are not what they publish as the advertised price. I almost wonder if they have so many reports and numbers floating around so they can dick people over. I can guarantee there is more slippage I can't account for and I've been ripped on the real price of commish.

Anyhow ya live and learn, hate to give up their nice charting but I don't trust them anymore. From the chart data error where their trade desk told me to "trade off time and sales" and not to trust charts, to the suspect commish and the slippage issues the charts just aren't worth price of admission.

[MC]

YM 15 minute chart from the 18th and 19th.

Nice VSA, thanks to Brownsfan and Walter getting me looking outside my tick timeframe that causes me to micromanage.

[Future]

Nice one mci. I like to apply mp concepts first then find trade location with VSA.

[MC]

	Quote:	Future
	Nice one mci. I like to apply mp concepts first then find trade location with VSA.

Those levels are on there...Red, blue and green dot/dash lines.
I have the floor pivots, MP pivots and volume weighted average price as well. In backtesting them they all can and will play key level roles so I want to apply VSA at these levels. Sounds like you have a similar game plan to mine.

MP held up very well today.

[MC]

Daily chart


Weekly chart

So the red line is where I shifted 401k to stable value funds.
The green line is today where I moved back in to the market.
We'll see if I got back in to soon but I think the DJI is headed for the upper range again and either way I saved myself about 10% and got more shares in the 401k. Since I'm nowhere near retirement I'm not really worried anyhow and this is more for practice.

[MC]

Under Armor...18 mil of a 30 mil float traded hands in a tight price range.
That's grade A accumulation. Of course we know this due to the price being so low...we saw the opposite action with the same 18 mil traded at a high price back in November.

They distributed in the $60's and bought back "on sale" in the upper $20's...now that's how you make SICK value plays.

[MC]

Nobody played UA?
I posted UA on several sites and only 1 guy bought in.
Not me since I'm between brokers either.
Hope somebody made money on this puppy.

[MC]

Notice the red vertical lines where the monthly ATR (Average True Range) breaks upwards, this measures volatility. Volatility is caused by what...EMOTION and PANIC. This is where the pro's are in control and they scare and whipsaw you till you're rich or broke (usually broke). In this high ATR range, fortunes can be made or lost quickly due to the jerky, exaggerated movements of the market. If you're not experienced it's probably best to sit out and start in calmer waters or just paper trade. This is why they say you don't know $hit till you've made it through a bear (high volatility) market. Low ATR bull markets are easy to trade and most anybody can make money or at least lose minimally in those conditions. This recent action will eat most people up.

Let me preface this by saying THE MARKET IS NOT ALWAYS LOGICAL.
Now you can see the "logical" thing is for them to test the area where this volatility started. The blue horizontal lines indicate the price level where this high ATR began. The Y2K bear tested that level 4 times and held.

THIS markets action we see the blue line is also holding up at this point. This is a monthly chart so the last candle is still open for a few more days but IMO it should close above that level. We also see the fib retracement...the 38.2% was bounced off which is a healthy retracement level assuming it holds. This is why I'm not overly bearish at this point. I think with the "easy button" (as I call it) the amateur traders today can cause the panic faster than ever. Look at the rocket ATR did on this drop. I have to think the pros got the prices they wanted and will support the levels I've posted on the other chart prior (10,760ish). Again I think this because they won't trash the market while still in it and IMO they are very much still in it. Using auction mentality AND the 50% fib retracement (10,760ish), that is kind of the point of no return IMO. That breaks and all hell breaks loose since those long term green positions of many years turn to red. This would be fine if big money wasn't still in the market, they don't care about retail investors. I think they have holdings at stake, this is really the $5 trillion dollar question.

Has the news has crippled your ability to think for yourself? It has for many traders and general population that don't know better. Follow the news if you want to be mislead and get the inside track AFTER it's happened. It's fact...did you realize after I said we should bounce...and we bounced...then and only then did the news come out with positive hints. NOW the job numbers are up, hrmmm kind of makes you curious, no? I'm not saying I'm pro by any means, just that I know enough now to not listen to the hype. If anything use it as a BS meter to know when the market might need to be faded.

Now onto what "may" happen next. Anything is possible, but I expect some chop and probably some further tests of the 38.2% fib and blue line. MAYBE as low as that 50% fib line, though it would be risky for big money to let that happen. If that 50% retracement breaks I would RUN and hide from the market till the dust settles. Either scenario...dust settling to me will be something like the pink trend line where we get a breakout above of the downtrend WITH a breakdown of the ATR. Bull markets don't happen on high volatility, so when we get a lower ATR the bulls can come back out to play.

Hope it helps.

[MC]

Steps to becoming a profitable trader...
1) Read "trading in the zone" and "trade your way to financial freedom" to get your mind looking at the market correctly.
It's gotta be looked at as a probability game if you intend to have long term profit. These books will drill that into your head.
2) Start to paper trade to find your "edge" and remember to keep it simple. If you don't know...your edge is your system that tilts the odds in your favor.
3) Okay, so now you have your edge. Now back test over many months and years of data to see if your edge proves out.
This will build up your confidence in your edge assuming it will be a profitable one.
4) Forward test (paper trade) the edge on live market data on a simulator for a short time. (Ideally one that mimics fills like OEC or Ninja) Don't spend forever here, spend the time on the back testing. This step is more to cement your belief in your edge and look for inconsistencies between back testing and live data. Sometimes indicators in realtime give headfakes you don't see on backtesting so watch out for that kind of stuff.
This will build even more confidence in your edge if it will indeed be profitable.
5) If you get to this step, you're mind should be ready, your edge is proven profitable and you are very confident in its statistical probability of profit. Get in there with your money and trade what you see not what you feel.

You know from the books you will have to be wrong which should cause you no pain because the market can do ANYTHING at ANYTIME and you fully embrace the risk to see if your edge will pay off in this unique moment in time. You're mind is now ready to trade effortlessly.

You know you have proven in back and forward testing your edge is net profitable and has statistical relevance in terms of probabilities.

You only have left to take the big leap of faith. Put your money where your mouth is and EXECUTE.

Hope it helps...It sounds easy because the market should be easy. We in our minds make it difficult through using emotional energy stored in our brains.
I'm telling you guys...read "trading in the zone". 8)

[idaxtrader]

Very wise words I couldn't agree more