MC's House of Mirrors

[mcichocki_]

I'm really thinking of going the easier route and swing trading till I have my mind right.
Day trading on margin is hectic and I'm not sure I have enough experience to expect the discipline needed to make it yet. Then again how will I get that experience? I'm not giving it up just yet.

Side note...and I know what some are gonna say on this (that 401k should not be shifted), but I moved my 401k to stable value on 10/3 (blue arrow on chart) with the exception of my holdings on IM stock. Pretty damn close to the peak. I don't see the big money supporting the 14k levels (see the below chart again) and want to preserve my money. The funny part is "stable value" when related to the USD isn't really all that stable but I can't ask to be paid in Euro or Canadian loonies and my 401k international funds suck.

[mcichocki_]

I think in general there should be concern at least in the near term. At this point I would look at shorting any rally on modest volume to that red trend line.

Thoughts?

[mcichocki_]

Very exciting day for me...

I made a system over the weekend that is so simple yet so effective thusfar.
I'm paper trading it for several days here and will be posting results of the trial.

My issue stemmed from not having a true system and also not using 2 contracts, 1 scalper and 1 freebie runner. Once I know I've locked in $40 profit and trail my stops I'll become more systematic. And that's the whole point of this game IMO.

7 or 8 trades...only 1 was a double loser on both contracts.
There was one trade that was iffy, below is the net gain with and without that trade.

$760 if the questionable trade was taken.
$635 if I had passed that trade up.

Today was pretty a medium trend day, I should be able to do better on a heavy trend day.

[mcichocki_]

8 demo trades today---
+$90
+$430
+$40
+$115
+$40
+$40
-$130
+$340

+$965 net today on paper with the system.
+$1840 total in 4 days testing with 27 trades.

I'm going to finish the week on paper and see next week if it works live or if I can screw it up. :LOL:

I know I'm going to have to fudge around with the stops at some point, this is only 1 week of testing.

Also I hope nobody thinks I expect this result day in and day out. Systems need to be changed and evolve with market conditions. That plus I could have a full week of drawdowns, who knows. I don't consider this a proven net positive by any stretch of the imagination...Not yet anyhow.

[mcichocki_]

[mcichocki_]

For you US long term investors...do you have concern over the long term value of funds since they are based on USD which is tanking on inflation?

I find myself wondering what would come of all our US savings and things that are valued in USD should the USD collapse. I'd like to think they can't just evaporate but on paper they are worth less and less each day. GULP!



That's a monthly chart, It's being pinched off lower and lower so a pop is bound to happen at some point in the somewhat near future. I don't think it's going to be anything major, but maybe enough to lower oil and metals perhaps. Might be a good time to buy some gold, gold stocks or something of the sort.

I'm wondering if I should cash out of USD vehicles and put my money in something more globally supported like gold?

Input, thoughts?

[mcichocki_]

[mcichocki_]

Daily DJI. You can see the triple rsi divergence, AKA kiss of death. Fibs are getting into the ambush range for a short. White trend line was support but is now resistance and also there is structure resistance meeting the same point. 13,350-13,360 is formidable resistance whether you love TA or not.


Weekly DJI. Here again triple rsi divergence. Fibs are in the same boat here.
Again stuck at structure resistance. And look at the weekly volume, modest volume, so unless the news tomorrow sparks lots of institutional buying there really is little bullish about this rally.

Just my 2 pesos worth.

[mcichocki_]

All I can say is I see shorts going in Friday.
Great place to get short as it seems, 50ema/trendline/fib ambush zone/structure resistance/.
Notice it did break those only to be rejected, another reason I think those were shorts going in on an upthrust.
I'll be amazed if Monday is green, but I'll be ready to trade either way. If the above mentioned resistance cluster breaks with buyers we could get a HUGE rally.

[mcichocki_]

Could any of you guys that use Tradestation help me out and save me a call to the broker. I need a screenshot or description of the OSO order window on a 2 lot setup.
I can't figure out which spot to put the trailing stop in and for what amount of points.

What I want is a scalper lot out at 10 points.
Trail the stop to break even on the 2nd lot.
Open target on the 2nd lot so I'd probably set that limit order at 200 points or something way out there so it doesn't get hit and just manually trail the stop to structure high/lows then.
I think the below screenshot is right but I'm not playing it till I'm sure.


Oh...1 other side note. I had a 7 point slippage on a stop market order on YM, is that reasonable? I was pissed but it was a fairly sharp move and it's only happened 2 times on me.

Thanks.