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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 01-25-2008, 12:14 AM
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Re: Hello fellow "Traitors"

Brownsfan, I have been looking for those currency based futures contracts but I don't know where to get a list of all the currencies. Do you know where I can get that?

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Old 01-25-2008, 12:16 AM
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Re: Hello fellow "Traitors"

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Interesting charts Abe. I guess the questions to ask yourself are:

1) Do I trade trending markets better over range bound markets?

2) Does FX actually trend as much as I think it does? In other words, have you done some serious, in-depth research or just cherry picking nice looking charts?

3) How do non-trending FX days compare to the indexes?

I agree with the suggestion to trade the EC/6E on the CME. It's a currency based futures contract so you get the best of both worlds in my opinion. Not huge volume there, but again, I have to wonder how much is needed in the beginning.
Well Brownsfan, I'm by no means cherry picking nice looking charts. I'm new to Forex and this is my observation of EURUSD. So I don't know the answer to all these questions, but they are valid questions which I will be finding out about.

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Old 01-25-2008, 12:23 AM
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Re: Hello fellow "Traitors"

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Brownsfan, I have been looking for those currency based futures contracts but I don't know where to get a list of all the currencies. Do you know where I can get that?
The CME site has them listed somewhere, but the Euro (EC or 6E) has the most volume. I would probably stick with that one.

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Old 01-25-2008, 01:26 AM
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Re: Hello fellow "Traitors"

I traded 6E in the past, very little volume. It may moved like EURUSD but the volume is a concern. EC is not but it's too big for what Abe is looking for (12.5$/tick). With FX, you can go at micro-lot ($10K) with a cent per tick. I think anyone can trade this lots as a substitute to paper trading. We're talking super peanuts here, can't get that with e-minis. I think anyone can afford trading with so little risk involved to test out the market.

Anyway, wish you luck with your research Abe.

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Old 01-25-2008, 02:32 AM
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Re: Hello fellow "Traitors"

24 hour currency markets is a red herring. There are only certain times a day that a small trader should be trading. Assume you trade a currency against the U.S. dollar. This is of course the main way currencies are traded. In fact, if you trade two currencies where one is not the dollar, it is called a CROSS rate. Think the dollar is important. Well if it is, then times when the U.S. treasury market is open and the U.S. stock market (NYSE) are open must be too. Right away you can see that trading the GBP/USD pair after 1700 (5pm est.) starts to make less sense.

Now you need to add in the type of brokerage firm you are trading with. Even though your firm may "sell" the point of the 24 hr market, many of their clients may trade during more traditional trading hours. Since your trade is either matched against another client or the broker themselves this matters. The fewer people trading on your brokers platform (no centralized exchange) the worse the fills, and the less trending the moves tend to be. Speaking of trends, the high propensity for currencies to trend is their greatest asset for traders.

The other thing that is sort of misleading is the no commission hype. Yes there is a cost to trading and it is called the spread. Some futures brokers charge less than $10.00 a round turn. In the forex you are doing good at 2 pip spread: 2*$10.00= $20.00 (euro).

If you want to trade forex:

1. Think about a broker that not taking the otherside of the trade.

2. Think about the time you will be trading.** The best time starts at 0200 hrs EST. (which is the London open) and goes to 1200 Est. Unless it is a Fed Day, and then the market can be active until after 1500 (fed announcement at 1400).

3. If you live in the Western part of the U.S. these are less than ideal hours for many. Especially those with families. Then again, it might be worse if you live on the East Coast. But either way, don't think you can come home from a 9-5 and trade after dinner and before Lost starts.

4. Currencies trend. Certainly some try and scalp but a more trend catching approach works better.

5. No centralized exchange. Thus it is hard to the most important data: Volume. The fact that volume is so hard to get in this market, should tell you of its importance: the big boys don't want poeple knowing what they are doing. And with volume, it can be seen. (some brokers offer tick volume and it can be used. Esingal does offer volume based on a certain number of banks. But if you use many broker provided platforms you will not get volume.)

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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 01-25-2008, 03:13 AM
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Re: Hello fellow "Traitors"

If you live in the West Coast it's not so bad since London opens around midnight, if you can spare 1-2 hours after that, this where most of the moves and volume take place. East Coast, it's no question the hours are hideous if you're working fulltime during the day. But if you swing trade them, there's no sense in sitting in and watch it tick, place your orders and you're done. Trends are seen more than eminis imo.

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Old 01-25-2008, 04:30 AM
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Re: Hello fellow "Traitors"

Just to give you an idea, take a look at this chart. It's been going since last night. Globex don't trend like this, everything dies at globex except in times of crisis. it's almost 500 pips already in a nice trend. Doesn't happen alot but trends tend to be smoother.
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File Type: gif GBPJPY-TREND.gif (10.9 KB, 13 views)

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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 01-25-2008, 09:15 AM
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Re: Hello fellow "Traitors"

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I traded 6E in the past, very little volume. It may moved like EURUSD but the volume is a concern. EC is not but it's too big for what Abe is looking for (12.5$/tick). With FX, you can go at micro-lot ($10K) with a cent per tick. I think anyone can trade this lots as a substitute to paper trading. We're talking super peanuts here, can't get that with e-minis. I think anyone can afford trading with so little risk involved to test out the market.

Anyway, wish you luck with your research Abe.
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If you live in the West Coast it's not so bad since London opens around midnight, if you can spare 1-2 hours after that, this where most of the moves and volume take place. East Coast, it's no question the hours are hideous if you're working fulltime during the day. But if you swing trade them, there's no sense in sitting in and watch it tick, place your orders and you're done. Trends are seen more than eminis imo.
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Just to give you an idea, take a look at this chart. It's been going since last night. Globex don't trend like this, everything dies at globex except in times of crisis. it's almost 500 pips already in a nice trend. Doesn't happen alot but trends tend to be smoother.
Thanks Torero. Good to know.

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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 01-25-2008, 09:16 AM
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Re: Hello fellow "Traitors"

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24 hour currency markets is a red herring. There are only certain times a day that a small trader should be trading. Assume you trade a currency against the U.S. dollar. This is of course the main way currencies are traded. In fact, if you trade two currencies where one is not the dollar, it is called a CROSS rate. Think the dollar is important. Well if it is, then times when the U.S. treasury market is open and the U.S. stock market (NYSE) are open must be too. Right away you can see that trading the GBP/USD pair after 1700 (5pm est.) starts to make less sense.

Now you need to add in the type of brokerage firm you are trading with. Even though your firm may "sell" the point of the 24 hr market, many of their clients may trade during more traditional trading hours. Since your trade is either matched against another client or the broker themselves this matters. The fewer people trading on your brokers platform (no centralized exchange) the worse the fills, and the less trending the moves tend to be. Speaking of trends, the high propensity for currencies to trend is their greatest asset for traders.

The other thing that is sort of misleading is the no commission hype. Yes there is a cost to trading and it is called the spread. Some futures brokers charge less than $10.00 a round turn. In the forex you are doing good at 2 pip spread: 2*$10.00= $20.00 (euro).

If you want to trade forex:

1. Think about a broker that not taking the otherside of the trade.

2. Think about the time you will be trading.** The best time starts at 0200 hrs EST. (which is the London open) and goes to 1200 Est. Unless it is a Fed Day, and then the market can be active until after 1500 (fed announcement at 1400).

3. If you live in the Western part of the U.S. these are less than ideal hours for many. Especially those with families. Then again, it might be worse if you live on the East Coast. But either way, don't think you can come home from a 9-5 and trade after dinner and before Lost starts.

4. Currencies trend. Certainly some try and scalp but a more trend catching approach works better.

5. No centralized exchange. Thus it is hard to the most important data: Volume. The fact that volume is so hard to get in this market, should tell you of its importance: the big boys don't want poeple knowing what they are doing. And with volume, it can be seen. (some brokers offer tick volume and it can be used. Esingal does offer volume based on a certain number of banks. But if you use many broker provided platforms you will not get volume.)
Thanks PivotProfiler. Good info.

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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 01-29-2008, 09:05 AM
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Re: Hello fellow "Traitors"

I'm changin my avatar, again. This one might be bad luck since he picked the losing side. So my new avatar was going to be God. But I think some of you might be upset at God if you had misfortunes. So I will go back to my old avatar for now until I find something better.

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