A Diary of a Trader...........add your daily comments

[Trade Up]

I thought it might be interesting if members of the Forum could post regular, or one-off, summaries of their daily trading activity.

It would show what other traders are thinking, how often they are trading and what kind of returns are being made.

From the comments elsewhere on the board, there seems to be a major variation in styles, strategies, etc.

All posts welcome.................

[Warren Forex]

	Quote:	Trade Up
	I thought it might be interesting if members of the Forum could post regular, or one-off, summaries of their daily trading activity. It would show what other traders are thinking, how often they are trading and what kind of returns are being made. From the comments elsewhere on the board, there seems to be a major variation in styles, strategies, etc. All posts welcome.................

That is an excellent idea. I am very bullish on EUR/USD at the moment. I am long substantial at the moment. I expect rate increase ECB with hawkish comments. The NFP might be under 75,000 on Friday. Gold is down and Oil is down and yet Euro has held and is over 1.2700.

I expect a breakout next week to the upside and I am trading that way. The Fed is done in 2006 and the rest are not. Watch for October surprises. The Dow is ready for a tumble shortly.

Good trading.

[Soultrader]

I would have to disagree on the Dow comment. The Dow has been in a steady uptrend since July. I was cautious of the May high but yesterday the markets broke above it on high volume at the first attempt. This is a very bullish sign.

If there is price acceptance in this new zone, I would look for a further lift in price. I believe we have reached new highs on the futs. With crude slipping down, I would not be surprised for the Dow to continue is uptrend.

See picture (attached)

[Warren Forex]

	Quote:	Soultrader
	I would have to disagree on the Dow comment. The Dow has been in a steady uptrend since July. I was cautious of the May high but yesterday the markets broke above it on high volume at the first attempt. This is a very bullish sign. If there is price acceptance in this new zone, I would look for a further lift in price. I believe we have reached new highs on the futs. With crude slipping down, I would not be surprised for the Dow to continue is uptrend. See picture (attached)

I agree with you based on TA alone. However that ignores the TRUE state of the Economy. I will expand on that after the ECB Announcement.

Thank You

[Soultrader]

Yes you are right... it is based on a purely chart/TA point of view. Im not much of a fundamental trader (my weakness). Will be waiting to hear your thoughts on this.

Thanks

[Follow The Trend]

While I can see that the charts are pointing towards a positive run for the Dow, I am not sure this is sustainable.

The housing market is pushing to far to quickly, with rents now only covering 50% of mortgage payments. This is a correction waiting to happen, and will put the economy under great pressure in due course.

[Follow The Trend]

On a seperate subject, the UK market is looking a little stronger of late, having just closed above the 6,000 level for the first time in a long while.

The economy is in decent shape, although the tax burden in the UK seems to be growing and growing. The only possible "spoiler" is the impending change in Labour Leader, and an election in the not too distant future.

Uncertainty is the markets greatest fear, as opposition parties continue to make ground on the Labour Party. Bullish on the markets, but wary on the political situation.

[Warren Forex]

	Quote:	Warren Forex
	That is an excellent idea. I am very bullish on EUR/USD at the moment. I am long substantial at the moment. I expect rate increase ECB with hawkish comments. The NFP might be under 75,000 on Friday. Gold is down and Oil is down and yet Euro has held and is over 1.2700. I expect a breakout next week to the upside and I am trading that way. The Fed is done in 2006 and the rest are not. Watch for October surprises. The Dow is ready for a tumble shortly. Good trading.

The Number was 51,000 However August was changed to 188,000. I called 75,000. The increase was 60,000 for August 2006. Should this have mattered ? Of course not. Did it ? Yes it sure did and the EUR/USD is now 1.2592 To 1.2595. What does the August CHANGE have to do with the PRESENT USA economy ? NOTHING AT ALL !!! SPIN SPIN SPIN !!!



Unless you understand why this happened it probably is the reason why FX trading is a losing game for most.



Let me ask this one question to establish my reasoning. Is the US Dollar more valuable after the release and has the US economy improved or not ?



The answer is the US Dollar has less value and based on 51,000 NFP which is a MAJOR disaster as relates to the future US economy. THe FED will CUT in 2007. The US Dollar now has less value.



Then WHY did the US Dollar go UP so drastically ?



INTERVENTION. MISINFORMATION. Technical Indicators TRIPPED. HEDGE FUND BLACK BOXES. INACCURATE MARKET SPIN.



Is this USUAL ?



YES..... One last item. November Mid Terms that might change EFFECTIVE control of the USA Government or at least STALEMATE it.



Now that there is some understanding of what actually happened. How can you benefit financially.



Buy 1/3 of your Positions in EUR/USD into weakness. (I am a BUYER now)

Sell 1/3 of your Position into STRENGTH. Not in a Position now ? If you agree on my opinion after you research it yourself then take a Position within Risk Management Criteria and HOLD 2/3 of you Position longer term. Perhaps as long as one month.



Does anyone have any comments or questions ?



Thank You.

BWM

[Soultrader]

I am a chartist. I believe in charts. Price tells me everything I need to know about the state of the economy.

Charts stayed strong on the Dow and now it looks like we are going to lift further to the upside.