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Old 08-28-2007, 12:13 PM
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Re: CFTC Reports of Commitment of Futures Traders

<<This may be a dumb question, but how would the price be rising so dramatically if so many people were going short? Unless these are longer term positions that were accumulated over the last few weeks?>>

Futures are just one part of the equation. There is very complex relationship between futures, options and stocks.

For instance, if you buy index puts -- whoever sold those puts to you very likely turned around and sold futures to hedge his position. Selling those futures puts downward pressure on the index but that may be offset by Fidelity or Joe Public buying stocks. If outside selling does come in then the put goes more 'in the money' and the seller of the option now has to sell more futures in order to stay hedged (hedging options is a dynamic process as they rise and fall in value exponentially).

You can see how there can be kind of a spiral effect as puts go in the money creating increased need to sell futures by option sellers. Eventually, the futures sellers will cover the futures positions as the puts expire. If put buyers come back after expiration then more futures will be sold.

Thus futures selling and put buying are closely related.

Re these charts, they just show we are at one end of the spectrum in terms of futures selling. I just look at the chart and see some reasons to look for upside --- amid many reasons to look for downside -- it is just one thing to consider.

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