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Im looking forward to trading crude in the future. I think Im going to stick with futures for some time... just never was attracted to stocks or Forex. The ES does indeed lead the YM but a few seconds. Not always but fairly common. For example, when the YM is testing the low but the ES has broken its low... I will anticipate a break in the YM as well. For YM traders this is a small edge.
I was completely mistaken with the futs not the cash. Im the new breed in day trading so I still need to catch up with the lingo  |
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Seems like energy sectors in general are hot nowadays. Crude oil mini's has $500.00 per contract/per dollar movement P/L. I've been trading Crude since it start falling from $76.00 (not swing just in-out - intraday)
I think energy sectors are just the flavor of the moment and sooner or later oil(who's leading the pack) is going to start a long period of consolidation once it settles on a fair price. It's been part of a cycle.
Something like MSFT in the 90's Traders and investors were dumping funds in Microsoft like chickens with the heads cut-off and the the infamous "antitrust case" came into play. Not only they lost a lotta money but a new cycle began in the Mircosoft history(Equity-related).
All equity markets, including Forex, runs in cycles.
When a new cycle begins, there's a shift between new and old participants in the market. It's a good time to review you strategy/system/method and be on the lookout of market behavior (this is the main reason why indicators are useless in my opinion) hope it makes sense.
It's good to play cycles but you better have the foot on the brake.
I can make this whole post about market cycle but let's get back the Dow
Traders/investors/ CNBC/ The Boy Scouts of America/The Undertakers Anonymous Society/Barney/Hilary Duff...everybody was waiting for the DOW to break the 12k range on Friday....yes this past Friday. Didn't happen...why??
Very simple ....Oil went up and retail went down...these two animals are putting a lotta weigth in the market recently
Keep an eye on them.
My morning routine for years has been looking at the sectors and the dow (quote boards) before anything in the morning. Is the first thing I do. If the dow is down/up but sectors are mixed, that's a warning sign. Especially if is bewteen 10:00-11:00AM. Not trading on days like this, keep me out of the "choppy monster" very often
Sometimes I look for any gaps - to fill(on choppy days) and maybe I go on and put a trade, but is on a case-by-case basis
As to the YM - I have a confession to make. I never put any weigth on. I watched ocasionally the YM tracking the ES but that's it. Please correct me if I am wrong (maybe I read it somewhere else) but you have a post comparing ES vs YM and the value on axis advantage the YM represents, other than is $5.00 per point vs $12.50 per tick. I am going to look into that very closely.
Thanks
Raul