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That is an excellent idea. I am very bullish on EUR/USD at the moment. I am long substantial at the moment. I expect rate increase ECB with hawkish comments. The NFP might be under 75,000 on Friday. Gold is down and Oil is down and yet Euro has held and is over 1.2700.
I expect a breakout next week to the upside and I am trading that way. The Fed is done in 2006 and the rest are not. Watch for October surprises. The Dow is ready for a tumble shortly.
Good trading. |
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The Number was 51,000 However August was changed to 188,000. I called 75,000. The increase was 60,000 for August 2006. Should this have mattered ? Of course not. Did it ? Yes it sure did and the EUR/USD is now 1.2592 To 1.2595. What does the August CHANGE have to do with the PRESENT USA economy ? NOTHING AT ALL !!! SPIN SPIN SPIN !!!
Unless you understand why this happened it probably is the reason why FX trading is a losing game for most.
Let me ask this one question to establish my reasoning. Is the US Dollar more valuable after the release and has the US economy improved or not ?
The answer is the US Dollar has less value and based on 51,000 NFP which is a MAJOR disaster as relates to the future US economy. THe FED will CUT in 2007. The US Dollar now has less value.
Then WHY did the US Dollar go UP so drastically ?
INTERVENTION. MISINFORMATION. Technical Indicators TRIPPED. HEDGE FUND BLACK BOXES. INACCURATE MARKET SPIN.
Is this USUAL ?
YES..... One last item. November Mid Terms that might change EFFECTIVE control of the USA Government or at least STALEMATE it.
Now that there is some understanding of what actually happened. How can you benefit financially.
Buy 1/3 of your Positions in EUR/USD into weakness. (I am a BUYER now)
Sell 1/3 of your Position into STRENGTH. Not in a Position now ? If you agree on my opinion after you research it yourself then take a Position within Risk Management Criteria and HOLD 2/3 of you Position longer term. Perhaps as long as one month.
Does anyone have any comments or questions ?
Thank You.
BWM