Originally Posted by PivotProfiler Great stuff. Really appreciate it, please keep it coming.
You know that I like the trailing stop method, but let's talk about the options you have mentioned.
First, it is pretty clear that regardless of method employed, a situation (more than one) will appear where the opposite method would have been more optimal. That may seem like a "captain obvious" statement and many would say that is why trading is so hard.....
I do not want to speak for Mark, but I believe he would say that an understanding of the price action would determine which method is best at any particular time. That is, since every situation differs, the more one understands the individual situation, the better each situation can be individually managed.
Now I have not tried this and am really just "thinking aloud " here, but what about a combination like this? Start out with exiting on the close of the WRB as you have previously mentioned. However in special cases exit on the appearance of a WRB if it is say, greater than 3 x's the average WRB on the chart. The special case IS the size of the WRB. But you might note that the size of certain WRBs are related to news events and other types of events.
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Pivot - you are right, there's probably many different combinations of using the WRB to exit that may or may not work better than exiting at the close or during the formation. As you said, either way looks great in hindsight.
I like the close the best simply b/c it's mechanical and there's no 2nd guessing yourself, which I am great at doing. I know we could analyze the AM vs. Lunch vs. PM vs. Econ News vs. Non-Econ News etc. etc. to see where the best might have been. To be honest, I think in the end, it's simply a matter of doing the same thing, each and every time, like I attempted to explain in the blackjack thread.
I think that whether it's trading, blackjack, etc. to randomly pick your entries, exits, etc. is a loser's game and the 'house' will always win in the end. I really don't see how someone could randomly choose their entries, exits, etc and think that's a good way to make money.