Was This a Valid Short

[Tams]

Originally Posted by forrestang I was looking for a retracement of some sort.

Why ask for a hamburger when you can have steak?


Rule # Uno: The Trend is Your Friend. Don't argue with a friend.

[Eiger]

Originally Posted by Bear Mtn. ... doesn't forestang's goals for the trade (i.e. what sort of entry was he looking for - a quick retracement or something more substantial) come into it? ...

You (by your statement, I don't mean you personally) are basically telling me that you want to put your preferences ahead of the market. Not a prudent idea. The background will help you assess what type of trade is likely to work. Let the market tell you what to do, not the other way around.

Eiger

[Bear Mtn.]

Not really Eiger... what I meant was more that within any trend (this one being bullish and with established background as you pointed out) there will obviously be short term moves to the downside periodically. What I was wondering was if forest was trying to catch one of these by studying buying action / volume. If so, wouldn't this be legitimate - as long as expectation as to the potential risk / reward are kept in check?

Hamburger vs. Steak as Tams put it, right enough... but I just wondered if forest really was trying to order the hamburger (and he was)

[brownsfan019]

Just one observation as a non-vsa guy - the thread was rather simple 'is this a short'. It quickly turned into a 3 page discussion w/ all sorts of opinions.

What appears to an outsider as a simple question has needed 3 pages so far and there are still questions.

Don't take this the wrong way, but does this stuff work in real-time? If so, can any of the VSA'ers join us in the p/l thread and show that it does? I've seen this kind of stuff discussed here for a while, yet have never seen any definitive proof of this working in real-time.

I ask b/c if no one is making this work in real-time, then these questions are just the blind leading the blind.

[Tams]

I don't appreciate your repeated "harassment/invitation" to join your p/l thread.

There are reasons for participation,
and there are reasons for opt-out.

Proving one's method works is NOT a reason to post at the p/l thread.

[Eiger]

Re: BF's post: Going beyond a few posts on this question brought us into psychology more than the method. Both, of course, are crucial.

But, let's return this thread to a constructive one ....

Here is the current chart of the daily SPY. I like to look at the SPYs because the volume is so clear. Let's discuss what you see. What is the background here and how might this inform our trading for tomorrow? Just look at this logically. What is occuring overall in the market and what has happened recently? What does you analysis suggest for tomorrow?

[sevensa]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 Just one observation as a non-vsa guy - the thread was rather simple 'is this a short'. It quickly turned into a 3 page discussion w/ all sorts of opinions. What appears to an outsider as a simple question has needed 3 pages so far and there are still questions. Don't take this the wrong way, but does this stuff work in real-time? If so, can any of the VSA'ers join us in the p/l thread and show that it does? I've seen this kind of stuff discussed here for a while, yet have never seen any definitive proof of this working in real-time. I ask b/c if no one is making this work in real-time, then these questions are just the blind leading the blind.

We can probably quickly go through few pages as well if one ask the question about is "this hammer" or "shooting star" a valid buy or short since not all hammers and not all shooting stars are buy and sell signals if you don't place them in context and look at the background and where they occur.

With candle patterns, there will be some people profitable and some not, as will there be with VSA. Posting a P/L statement doesn't say anything about VSA, Candles, Mooncycles, etc; just the trader. I for one have seen no prove in the P/L thread that trading candle patterns work; just that some traders are profitable with whatever method they are trading.

[forrestang]

Originally Posted by Eiger Re: BF's post: Going beyond a few posts on this question brought us into psychology more than the method. Both, of course, are crucial. But, let's return this thread to a constructive one .... Here is the current chart of the daily SPY. I like to look at the SPYs because the volume is so clear. Let's discuss what you see. What is the background here and how might this inform our trading for tomorrow? Just look at this logically. What is occuring overall in the market and what has happened recently? What does you analysis suggest for tomorrow?

Hmmmm.....

Well as you mentioned earlier, we've been in a trading range for a while now. We had our Break Through Supply, we've had an up day on what appears to be less than average volume, with a middle close....'No Demnad?'

So, we're probably due for a retracement or an up move. I'd suggest based on closing volume we should expect a retracement back to what is now support. Trades to the short side should be expected, but we won't know till tomorrow?

Any other opinions?

[BlowFish]

The volume on SPY looks quite different here I wonder why? Edit ahh I think there is a bar kind of hidden at the right hand edge.

S&P DEP RECEIPTS | SPY | Charts - Yahoo! Finance

[diablo272]

The volume data for that chart is definitely very wrong.

Also wrong, but more correct:

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=AMEX:SPY