[Dogpile]

Hi Future,

I was a professional fundamental guy for many years. Good fundamental anlysis works very well over the long-run. Bad fundamental analysis fails miserably. The problem and the benefit with fundamental analysis is the fact that it takes a long time to figure out if you are really right or wrong. This is a benefit because of the the long-term upslope of the market. This is a problem because how do you control losses when something goes against you.

Trying to use fundamental information to explain the short-term swings is useless. People that do this are making it up. The market will very often do the opposite of what the fundamental news implies. Other times, it will go in the direction of the fundamental news of the day. Anyone who tries to trade short-term on fundamentals is sure to lose. My short-term trading is 100% technical at this point. All of my trades were on the short-side yesterday and it had absolutely nothing to do with thinking about subprime mortgages.

Think about all the major things that can happen that are simply unrelated to anything you can predict. 'Shocks' like natural disasters, political problems, wars, terrorism etc... what the hell do you do when these 'shock' events happen, your portfolio just got nailed, the market is plunging and you fear another big gap down the next day? Well, understanding short-term technical structure gives you a risk-controlled gameplan for any situation -- though many times that simply means sitting out.

BTW, I am very familiar with Linda Rashke and she would definitely consider herself 100% technical.

One note: I found 'Market Profile' to be a very interesting combination: it is technical in nature but does help you find where the market is finding 'value' -- a fundamental concept.