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Re: [VSA] Volume Spread Analysis
The story continues........
Here is more on the underlying story. I have noticed that very often after a No Demand/No Supply (or low volume in general), 1-3 bars later we see an Effort bar.
Let's examine the story.
No Demand means there is little to no activity by the Professional Money. For practical purposes, we will define Professional Money as those traders who trade with enough size to actual effect market change by creating imbalances in supply and demand.
Now if the Professional Money is not buying as prices rise, then the must expect that prices are poised to fall.
If they expect price to fall, one should not be surprised to see a bar in the down direction where volume picks ups as they try (effort) to take price in their desired ( or expected) direction. This is shows up as an Effort to Fall bar.
Individually, neither bar is defined by the other. That is to say, they are independently defined. Hence their propensity to occur around each other gives more insight into the validity of the story they purport to tell.
Note that the chart also tells the opposite and as telling situation: a No Demand in the range of an Effort to Rise bar. As there was an effort to take price higher, price moved down. It begins to move back up. However, there is no longer any interest in higher prices. Since we are in the range or area where Bulls rushed in, we would expect more bulls to rush in. Or at least the same bulls to exert more force (effort). By NOT seeing this, we can see underlying weakness in the market.
Story is the "why". Story coupled with repetition allows us to see things as being more than mere coincidence. Story gets us thru the down draws. All those traders looking for the "Grail" , might first start out by finding a story they can believe in. It wont take away the losses, but it makes them more palatable.
Last edited by mister ed; 03-28-2008 at 07:15 PM.
Reason: Add back chart
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