Riding the Wyckoff Wave

[Tannism]

	Quote:	gassah
	I'm still shy by an hour and can't figure out how to change it. I think the earliest I could get in is the 10:12 bar following the spring and after the supply line is crossed.

Daylight savings time? Spring forward?

[gassah]

	Quote:	Tannism
	Daylight savings time? Spring forward?

Right. I just can't find the setting in Tradestation.

[treadstone]

Thanks for uploading those two charts, gassah.

Very interesting and useful information.

[heretodaygone...]

I was studying gassah's charts and a question that I had was "why did he choose the july swing high to start his profile?" From this question, I started messing around with volume profiles from different timeframes and here's the results...unfortunately, these charts aren't very visually appealing but I think they may intrigue some who read this thread.The charts are of ES

- 1st chart is from the oct.2002 lows with a PVP(peak volume price) at around 1270

- 2nd chart is from the oct 2006 breakout with a PVP of around 1450

- 3rd chart is from the oct 2007 high till present with a PVP of 1370

[DbPhoenix]

Thanks to nic and tune for stepping up to the plate.

This chart is a good example of the importance of remaining bias-free. Given the parabolic rise through resistance all the way to 1900, a bias toward the short side would seem to be a duh. And the first level of support appeared to be 1880. However, if one looks back at tune's chart, he can see the congestion area between 1880 and 1890 on the 4th and 7th, the midpoint of which was 1885. Even if he focused on the low to the high on the 7th, he'd still end up with a midpoint at 1885. Therefore, dropping below 1890 does not necessarily mean that the long game is over.

Note here that when volume comes in at 0948, price is pulled down. But even though price continues its slide, volume breaks off dramatically, then works its way higher until 0952. All this appears to favor the short side. But look at effort and result. As volume rises, the bars get shorter, and when volume peaks at 0952, price closes well off the low, and buyers are able to push price higher in the next bar with much less effort; hence the lower volume. Therefore, throughout this "downmove", buyers are coming into the market, supporting the price, and even pushing price higher.

Volume then dries up considerably during the upswing after moving price to 1892. The big volume comes at 1000 and pulls price down almost to 1886. This appears, again, to support the short side, particularly since sellers are able to move price with little resistance from buyers (low volume, except for 1000).

Buyers and sellers then go back and forth, and volume does pick up during this exchange. However, the biggest volume is unable to pull price lower, and the end result is a draw. This is not good for the short side. At 1008, buyers are then able to push price higher with very little effort (again, low volume) suggesting that selling pressure is much less than it had been.

During the next segment, buyers are able to keep sellers at bay with relatively little effort (again, low volume). Next, buyers are able to push price all the way back above 1891, and though the volume is higher, suggesting that they had to work a little harder, it is not unusually high.

During the last segment, price drifts back a bit, but volume practically disappears, suggesting that sellers are done, and it's up to the buyers (note how easily buyers push price higher at 1019).

This is only about bars, however, if one can't see them move. If one watches them move in real time or via replay, he can detect the waves easily. Note here how price dips into each trough, then rises back out of it, crests, then repeats the cycle again and again, gathering strength along the way. If sellers had the upper hand, price would not repeatedly recover in this way.

[heretodaygone...]

The way I view the market is that price will continually test where value is.As traders, determining value and or value excesses are is imo key to trade placement.Here's my view:

[namstrader]

DB,

I would guess that you are familiar with the Ord Oracle? Do you like his work?
I want to again express my great appreciation for your work and sharing your knowledge. I am so glad I took the plunge to learn everything about Price and Volume that you have provided here at Traders Laboratory. It astounds me how seeing the territory and playing field is much more richer when incorporating your shared map for all of us to learn more from. Before my skills of reading a chart did not know what was really there to understand. You have given me more depth to conceptualizing what the hell is going on with more advanced ways to understanding Demand/Supply with Price, Volume and important areas of support and resistance.

Thanks again!

[DbPhoenix]

I'm glad the material has been useful. As for the "Ord Oracle", I've never heard of him, but the "oracle" part is pretty much a turnoff right out of the gate.

[namstrader]

Tim Ord is his name and I found this attached pdf at his website to share.

[DbPhoenix]

I don't mean to be unkind. I'm sure Mr Ord is a superior person and understands Wyckoff well. But this sort of thing is a pet peeve. When gurus start naming things after themselves, little bells should begin to ring (the "Elder Ray"; set to stun?).

I suspect that the user might find his software more useful than TradeGuider, which is for the most part a joke, but it suffers from the same mortal defect: it attempts to code what can't be coded. However, the software is also a lot cheaper. As long as his users remain ignorant of Constant Volume Bars, the market for the software should remain intact.

Any book or software program or course or seminar or whatever that promises to shorten the learning curve (that is, provide shortcuts) will do well, particularly if it promises to reveal anything "hidden" or "secret". But there's just no substitute for the screen time, and even the software developer, if he's honest, will acknowledge that fact, albeit grudgingly.

But thanks for acquainting me with this gentleman and his work.