ok, so just curious others thoughts on this particularly those who have written mechanical strategies.
if you can write a very simple strategy, and it comes up as 51% of trades profitable and say +$20 per contract per trade (say its for ER2). and say you have only 1 filter in it... ie, don't trade first 30 mins or last 15 minutes of day...
So Here is the plan I have been executing;
1. Use some simple mechanical triggers with stops (optimized in the strategy) to give a few buy and short signals per day.
2. Use some 'trade location' logic via Market Profile as a discretionary filter to help choose direction (ie, go with momentum vs counter-trend trade).
3. Use some good pattern recognition as a discretionary filter (reversal times of day,
taylor trading, bull flags, coils etc...)
4. Target just a few trades a day
5. Avoid real low volume days and other narrow range days..
6. Add some non-quantiative trading savvy
Take this process and make a living.
This has been working for me. Is it sustainable over the long-run?
It feels like 'trade location' via Market Profile is the secret sauce to making a strategy go from 51% profitable to something significantly higher than that. Moreover, any strategy using 1 simple driver with 1 filter in one time frame that is profitable over thousands of trades is pretty easily improved upon.
discuss....