[Dogpile]

Market appears to have put in a corrective move up over last 2 days after making new momentum lows on Thursday on the 120-minute timeframe. There was a trending (skinny) market profile that began on Friday afternoon and continued into Monday.

The 'up-auction' tired yesterday as NYSE volume was lightest since May 25th and the profile became 'fat' near 1528.00 for S&P's and 1935.00 for NQ.

Combining Friday afternoon with all of monday, the Profile has formed a 'P' distribution. A stem of the 'P' indicates short covering AND new buying. The belly of the P indicates that some responsive selling came in at the higher price level. A 'P' is not bearish though by itself, just indicative that buyers and sellers came into balance for a period near 1528.00 -- ending the short-term up-auction that began friday afternoon.

Momentum tends to precede price which would imply we will go below Thursdays low at some point due to the 120-min momentum lows put in on Thursday. This may or may not happen but it is important to be cognizant of the various buy/sell pressures.

Summation Ticks have moved back up after getting extremely depressed. Summation ticks are a proxy for net buy/sell program behavior. These line up nicely with the 120-min oscillator right now.

This morning; the bond market is again getting hit -- helping to send the S&P futures for a large (~7pt) opening gap down.

Today is set up bearishly but the market has already traded down. Due to the strong statistical tendencies, I will be patient and will look for a 15-min 20-EMA touch at some point before shorting. Large gaps to start the day indicate the market is out of balance which implies a significant pick-up in volatility.

Comments welcomed. Will soon give up on this discussion board if some other traders don't soon join in...