Hmm.. I wish I could offer you a succinct estimate of when crude will return to $70 or $80 a barrel or greater, but if I was really that good at projecting price of such commodities, you would have to pay me more than you would make on your trades to get me to divulge it heh, heh.
I think we can rest assured that the "oil games" are far from over and that present crude prices won't stay in the cellar for long.
I daresay that nobody who really knows the answer to this quandry shall breathe even the slightest whisper to you about when it shall happen. Some say love makes the world go around, while the oil industry execs are quite certain that is pure poppycock because they own most of the world and they know better!
Is going long on crude a good idea while it is still in the low $60's? Well I think that comes down to the same three questions you ask yourself before every trade:
1) What is your target profit;
2) How much are you prepared to risk; and
3) How long can you wait?
Any of us can hazard a guess after reading pronouncements from the various gurus, but as you have probably already seen, gurus seldom agree on very much.
No doubt oil "could" conceivably go down to $50 a barrel soon after you go long. However, I suspect that is not a highly probable scenario. Why is it you want to trade crude? Are you convinced it is going up soon and you just don't want to miss the big jump this time? If you are not knowledgeable in this commodity but you are still intent upon trading it, then find out who has the best record of profitable trade recommendations and take a small position piggybacking on their recommendations and see how it goes.
Happy Trading
