The Turtles

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You might be interested in reviewing a Model Validation of the "Turtle Trading System" that was submitted as college coursework here:

Turtle Model Validation

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	Quote:	aidaweb01
	I've read in other forums that the turtle methods no longer work in todays markets. I am likely to be shot down in flames because I can't actually back that statement up! But, I do think that their scaling into positions was the key to their success and that derivations on this technique are 100% valid today. IMHO this is also the hardest part of their plan to replicate - Balls of steel required. Wonder if anyone has any success stories on scaling in?

There will be those that will disagree with me, but here is my opinion based on my own research.

Scaling In actually falls into two categories: Averaging Up and Averaging Down. The Turtle method averages up, and is still effective for a trend trader. But only if the exits are adjusted accordingly. The beauty of Averaging Up for a trend trader is that it allows you to get in early using a very simple entry with a minimal position. You only have the full position on when the market proves you right.

For scalpers and swing traders, I lean toward putting the whole position on at the get go. these guys usually work with targets as exits, and very seldom let the market run like a trend trader does.

I personally do Average Down on my long term investments.