Reaver's Incursion

[Reaver]

The soybean trade this week:





Okay bear with me, as this is something you may want consult your own records of Market profile for, since Ensign apparently doesn't let you select the exact days per profile....oh well...

Alright if you look at a five day merged profile you will of the 4th-9th you will see that the market was in a bracketing or balance phase (one distribution)....coincide ntally, you may have noticed the MMA short term (blue) lines showed an "agreement" on price/value, while the underlying trend remained strong as dictated by the red lines.

You will see that price is right around the vwap, though still above, price and vwap are both well above the PVP/POC (whatever you want to call it) .

If you refer to the volume for the day, you will notice a very significant increase from the couple days before it, and a slight increase from the previous day...this tells me that things may be coming to a head...I refer to the buy/sell volume and I see that there is a huge jump in buying vs selling from the day before and recently.

If you watched the price you will have seen a jump in volatility as well...notice the bar for the 9th...quite a change from the past couple days...and in a balancing market? hmmm...

Even if you used many of these "set ups" separately, you would have noticed some signals....refer to Jperls threads about using statistics, you will see that you are smack dab in the middle of one of his bread and butter setups.

At this point you may have considered getting in on the night session, looking for a breakout.....

There are factors besides that I am going to look for, or maybe not...just depends on various things....

These are a few ideas you may consider for using auction market analysis in your trading.....

I had considered whether or not to give away this much, as figuring this stuff out wasn't a walk in the park (maybe I am slow) but there are a couple reasons why I decided to. The fact that I would not have been the first one to share some very important ideas for trading is one, there has been some very high quality material put out by some of the members here. I owe a lot of the guys here for helping me see some things I would have probably missed otherwise...this forum was built on the principles of education and sharing of ideas. It's the least I could do. This isn't my exact edge, but it may give you some ideas for your own trading development.

Another thing to remember is that there are many more factors that go into making a decision to put on a trade. Not all "set ups" (I hate even calling them that, it's not very accurate in my opinion)....are anywhere near this cut and dry....and even if you knew exactly what I look for, it wouldn't mean you would see the same thing as me...

that's the beauty of discretionary trading....there is no secret method or system to it...AND I am always looking for my trading to evolve, so what I look for now, may not even be applicable or the most appropriate in the future.

More to come.....Again remember, by no means am I putting myself on a pedestal, as I have a metric ass ton to still learn in my trading...but hey it's my edge that I have earned, however little it may be right now doesn't matter...I am just glad I found a niche and I am going to exploit it to the fullest extent possible.

[Reaver]

Any questions so far? anything I have been unclear on? More to come....the purpose of this thread is not to teach anyone to trade...but to show you what I look for and for you to pull bits and pieces as you see fit for your own methods. Of course I want to make sure I am not confusing anyone by leaving out details I may take for granted. So let me know if I should clear anything up.

I am going to be posting upcoming trades moving forward starting Monday (assuming of course, that there ends up being a viable trade on Monday).

[walterw]

Nice stuff here Reaver ¡¡ love to see your charts, specially clean... keep them coming ¡¡ cheers Walter.

[TinGull]

Very nice stuff. I'm sure I'll have some comments to post when I'm not so groggy.....still early here.

[Reaver]

	Quote:	walterw
	Nice stuff here Reaver ¡¡ love to see your charts, specially clean... keep them coming ¡¡ cheers Walter.

Thanks for the compliment Walter! Let me know if you have any questions or ideas....

[Reaver]

	Quote:	TinGull
	Very nice stuff. I'm sure I'll have some comments to post when I'm not so groggy.....still early here.

ha ha yeah no worries there. You and me both. I stayed up til about 4 for no good reason. I'd definitely like for you to check it out and see if there's any commentary from you.

[Nick1984]

Nice stuff there Reaver. You're system is completely different from mine so nice to see someone else! I'm hoping to get back into swing trades once again cause that's where I started out!

One your MMA's, I have a question: On your soybean trade the blue cluster dips and you considered that to be the traders agreeing on current price, how do you interpret the dip as an agreement?

[Reaver]

	Quote:	Nick1984
	Nice stuff there Reaver. You're system is completely different from mine so nice to see someone else! I'm hoping to get back into swing trades once again cause that's where I started out! One your MMA's, I have a question: On your soybean trade the blue cluster dips and you considered that to be the traders agreeing on current price, how do you interpret the dip as an agreement?

Nick,

Thanks for the response. Pardon my terminology, as it's not the most accurate description (I mentioned that fact earlier) regarding the mma....

The purpose of any market is to facilitate trade, not to trend...trend is the search for new value once it breaks out from a previous agreement....basically what I see in the dip of the mma, or perhaps the better word for it is convergence....is that the short time frame participants are agreeing on the current price...ie price is ranging, or bracketing.....Basically when you are in a ranging (balancing, bracketing it's all the same thing) market, time frame participants are agreeing on the price relative to their viewpoint, if that makes sense.

Usually (at least from my experience) if you look at a profile of the market at the same area you see a convergence of the mmas you will see a balance area....

Another important thing to remember is that I do not use this chart set up to make my trade selection...this chart set up merely allows what I see in my data to be visualized easier....I use 5,10,and 20 day profiles among many other things in not displayed on the charts in my research....therefore reading my charts directly vs what I say may end up being a little different as far as direct comparison...

There are many reference points to study such as relative volume, volatility, trade facilitation, longer term profiles, etc lots of stuff.....

I hope I cleared it up a little. If I didn't or if you have other questions feel free to ask....I am using my charts for this log mainly to help illustrate the data interpretation I am posting to make trades on if that makes sense.

[Reaver]

Okay I see a potential trade coming up. I will post the info a little later tonight once my volume data from Friday comes in. And I get a chance to re-evaluate.

[Reaver]

I was looking at wheat for a trade....I would normally be looking for a break to the downside around 8346...but that would be a counter-trend trade...I am not totally against them but I prefer to stick with the trend. Maybe after more experience I will be more comfortable with a counter-trend play, but for now I am going to sit on the sidelines.

Note: For the time being I will be watching 30 yr Bonds, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat and the YM.....I may extend this universe out a little further in time..but this is what I am comfortable with for the time being.

So...sidelines it is. Good chance to observe wheat to see what would have happened in a CT trade....maybe it will help build some confidence in taking CT moves....or maybe it will reinforce my feelings against taking them.

Time will tell..for now, this is a chance for me to sit down, shutup and learn.