Gold Positions

[TinGull]

Yesterday I put on a couple of gold positions and an oil services position.

BHI (Baker Hughes Intl)

Was privy to some unusual options activity in the Oct calls, and thought I’d give it a look. Was coming up on resistance, and the sense the call buyers had was this would push though. Implied Volatility came down from 45 to about 32, with historical vol at 57. So, cheap. I went ahead and bought a call spread to participate in the potential move without risking a whole heck of a lot.

•••â₠¬Â¢Ã¢â‚¬Â¢Ã¢â‚¬Â¢Ã¢â‚¬Â¢Ã ¢â‚¬Â¢Ã¢â‚¬Â¢Ã¢â‚¬Â¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¢â€¢â€¢â€¢â €¢â€¢â€¢â€ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Â¢Ã¢â‚¬Â¢Ã¢â‚¬Â¢Ã¢â ‚¬Â¢Ã¢â‚¬Â¢Ã¢â‚¬Â¢Ã¢â‚¬Â¢

Risk: $98 per contract

Reward: Potential $460 per contract

Scenario: BOT Nov 100 Call/SOLD Nov 105 Call for net debit of $0.98. BHI has to close above 105 by Nov expiration for me to get maximum profits. BHI currently is trading 96.87 and today broke to record highs. Note, too, the volume on the breakout. This is supporting it’s breakout to these new highs, and it should continue on it’s path upward.



Currently: +59.50 per contract






GDX (Market Vectors Gold Mining ETF)

Was stalking this one for a potential entry on a breakout of the recent consolidation. This morning gapped open and price fell back to the top of the range of the consolidation, and I bought some calls outright as the IV was showing it to be decently cheap.

Risk: $155 per contract

Reward: Unlimited

Scenario: BOT Nov 48 Calls at $1.55. GDX was consolidating at highs and was poised for a breakout. IV had been forming a triangle and was looking to break to the upside. I *could* have bought a call spread on this, too, but the IV was low enough for me to see some upside room to it. When IV hits around 46 (currently at 39) I’d look to exit the trade. Also, note the volume on the breakout today:



Currently: Calls trading at 1.62 mid, up about 7 dollars per contract.

[TinGull]

With these positions being options plays, I'll be watching the implied volatility a bit closer than the price. Price can move as high as it wants to, but without vol creeping up, too, the options aren't going to move.

[trader273]

Here is my take on your BHI trade.

[TinGull]

Thanks! Hammer also occurred on increasing volume closing at the highs of the previous bar. I think it was a nice trade, too

[Maverick0325]

Can you please tell me where I can find daily price information on the GOLD?
For example, i would love to see a place that has O,H, L, C, Daily Fibs, Daily & Weekly Pivots, and any other commentary such as Market Profile.

thx in advance everyone!

Joe

[TinGull]

You could get that thru any charting service such as tradestation, InvestorRT, eSignal...Market Profile won't be thru just anyone, tho. I happen to like IRT for MP stuff. If you're looking for it for free....best of luck to you.

[Maverick0325]

Thx TinGul, i noticed youre from ME, me too, grew up in Portland, now live in PHX, soon to be moving to LA.

I was merely looking for a forum or a blog where someone was leavign daily posts regarding GOLD. I have eSignal, and yes, I am receiving that info there as well, always looking for more info.

What are you trading these days? How are things? You can email me @ IntheTrade@gmail.com.

Joe