Clearly, the days when even a blind pig could find a kernel of corn are indeed over. However momentum is a tricky thing. When it is truly obvious enough for most people to see it, it is often too late to do much about it. Assessing it early enough to benefit from it seems to be the trick. I sat in an online trading room recently for a couple of weeks wherein their software was designed solely to find and benefit from momentum in the market but I was hard-pressed to find better signals there from that jumble of indicators than from following a simple set of smoothed and enhanced moving averages.
As the saying goes, one man's meat is another man's poison and I think that holds true in trading as in any endeavor. Certainly momentum still exists in the markets, but it is nothing like was experienced prior to the bursting of the bubble. I try not to get too hung up on the flavor of the day anyway as whatever works today may not be working next year at this time or even six months from now, despite general psychological behavior will be quite similar.
I think perhaps there is great merit to the phrase "trade what you see, not what you think." Perhaps I shall change my name to MOTOman... Master Of The Obvious heh, heh.
Happy Trading
