Here's another perspective that supports your long bias for Monday, 9/25...
An index divergence occurred betwen the YM and ES on Friday, 9/22. The YM made lower daily lows whereas the S&P did not. This divergence may have started to correct itself into Friday's close. In addition, the YM has formed volume divergences, and volume started to pick up to the upside. We'll see how this continues to play out on Monday after checking the Globex action...
index_div.GIF
ym.GIF