YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[MC]

	Quote:
	I've added some more volume by price support lines and updated the chart. To me this shows the volume and where the majority entered the market after the Y2K bear. Almost 2 years of consolidation setting up the bear to bull transition. No doubt about it...this is THE key price pocket. Volume = market sentiment and it's staring us in the face. Now the question is do the big money players have chips on the table still, if so they support that line...if not they let it tank through and get in MUCH below that pocket of support.

The above I posted on the web on Jan. 23rd.
The levels I posted back then are coming up. 10,700 remains the most important level I can see. If we stay above that, the point of control is upheld and long term investors will hold albeit with a load of steamy crap in their pants at this point. If we break below there with conviction (especially close below) I'd look for massive bloodshed to accompany the crap in the pants.
I'm looking at that volume pocket as a fault line, if we break that open it's going to be like an earthquake when we have plate shifting at the earths core.


Here's an updated chart. In bell curve terms this is a chance to revert and test the MEAN. This testing is something the market does all the time on different timeframes. It's how value is probed in a 2 way auction. Goes higher, no interest...revert to the mean and see if there's interest. If there's no interest there it goes lower till there is no interest and then back to the mean. From the mean any direction could be tested FWIW, including chopping around and coiling at that section of price. My signature sums up how I feel about market movements.

All JMHO

[ammo]

mc, thanks for the research,i'm not savy enough to post, transport, a chart,someone on tl gave me the link but the skill level was over my head,anyway,if you go back to 87 and look at the chart preceding the oct black monday dow you will see a 3 step pattern where we retraced to the bottom of the 1st step,that would be 10700 on your chart,if you look at the nikkei in 89 it had the same pattern and then made a 4th step,it sold off and blew thru the bottom of the 1st step,the dow chart you have up could have 4 steps starting around 10700

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	ammo
	mc, thanks for the research,i'm not savy enough to post, transport, a chart

How to post a chart on TL

[MC]

Still plenty of resistance ahead on the markets overall. DJI has no divergence on a weekly going into this move so perhaps the Nasdaq is leading off it's divergence. Either way Nas has been the stronger market all the way in this bear really. In case some newer folks didn't catch the tip on the charts...there is a nice ticker to help you spot divergence on highs and lows.

[james_gsx]

Good work MC. I bought several calls after the ES bounced hard off 1200. Today I sold those calls for a nice profit. Although I probably sold early I'm still okay with the profit I took.

[atto]

I'd love you guys to give your ideas/feedback on my thread over in Market Analysis.. the more opinions / analysis, the better .

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...term-4173.html

[firewalker]

It's been almost a month since someone posted to this thread, and I hate to see it go down under

I've deliberately chosen not to use trend, support or resistance in this example. Just to show that just observing price action (and volume) you can get a very good clue of what the market's intentions are. This is from last Friday, August 08, DOW e-mini, 5-minute candles:

(1) If price caught you off guard at the open (moving up 200 points in a good 30-minutes, there was at least one possibility to get aboard later on.

Keeping in mind that price has already traveled the average daily range, I think it's important to keep expectations in check and not expect the market to move another 100 points just because we want it to. Then again, price can move further than what seems rational.

(2) Unless you are paying attention to volume, you would've entered long at 'A', on what looks like a breakout of the converging triangle. And somebody with a wide enough stop would have gotten away with it. But not me, because I wanted to see continuation straight away. If price doesn't move, I'm out. I prefer to take a small loss than sit tight and hope.

(3) 'B' was the definite entry, confirmed by volume. Notice how the attempt to move higher at 'A' gets rejected immediately. Not so at 'B', volume takes off completely and price makes another push higher about one hour later. All of this requires patience obviously. And lots of it.

(4) After that price makes Higher Highs and Higher Lows, but momentum seems to take off. Given that it's a Friday and price has already made a run for almost 350 points, we realize that the first sign of trouble should make us run for the exit.

(5) 'G' is still a higher low, but selling pressure comes in near 'H'. Look at where the candles close and look at the volume. We fail to make a high above 'F'. With less than one hour till the close, I'd definitely scale out here. If we break below 'G' the last swing will be broken and if you didn't take some profits at 'H', you'll want to do so at 'I' (giving back 50 points though)...