YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[brownsfan019]

James,

Well, we have some nice candlestick action here since you started this thread. Almost looks too easy...



At this point:

1) All LONGS should be closed.

2) A new trade to go short was confirmed today rather quickly and easily. As of now, the classic candlestick pullback to SMA worked rather easily. Now it's a matter of trade management. Could be a little to no risk trade in one day. I like those!

[james_gsx]

I think we could see another down day to the 200 SMA tomorrow which is around 12,900. I think the volatility is back and so is the volume. From the latest swing high/low we are at a .382 retracement and I don't see any reason why that would hold.

[james_gsx]

I am seeing some sort of wedge on all 3 indices. The Naz closed at the 200SMA today. Does anyone know where the TRIN finished today and what went on with the VIX?

[brownsfan019]

What an interesting day today... very bearish day on Tue and the end result for Wed was a very bullish day. Now, if you watched the price action as it unfolded today, you saw some bearish activity at the start and a few little pullbacks, but the bulls took it in the day, esp from 2:30pm est on.

Here's today's dia chart with some analysis:



After looking at that chart, here's my plan of attack:

If still short, have to pay attention the rest of this week. At most the stop should at the top of the shooting star. At best, you may have been trailed out today, which is fine. Today was a major bullish push and I would have no problem seeing that this short just didn't have it this time.

[james_gsx]

Notice how the candle couldn't break the low of the shooting star, and had less volume. It has to make you wonder if it could be a bull trap, I think watching the rest of the week would be a good plan of attack, and be ready to exit any short/long position.

GDP numbers are released tomorrow, pay attention to that.

[brownsfan019]

Good points james. If one was short and still short on the shooting star, tomorrow is an important day as you noted, the low has not been violated. An aggressive short should still be short in my opinion and a conservative short was probably trailed out.

[james_gsx]

I finally got tradestation installed and ready to go

Looking at the charts that were formed today I noticed that we still fit inside a wedge. But there are definitely some things to consider. Depending on how you draw your trendlines for the Nasdaq, the naz could be a leading indicator. Before all of this started, the Nasdaq was being used as a leading indicator by John Carter. I no longer use his service and just rely on myself, but it would be interesting to know what he's looking at.

I wanted to make sure I was looking at the big picture here too, so I looked at the weekly charts. One thing stood out, on the Dow, Naz, and S&P we are forming a (hammerhead?). But we are not breaking any form of resistance, and I still think the candle could mean something significant. I have too many images to attach so I will just post them via imageshack.

Let me know what you think Brownsfan...

[james_gsx]

One other thing, I know this is possible and maybe you can point me in the right direction to start searching. But how can I figure out where the majority of the volume was traded? Can't you use market profile for something like that? I believe it could help figure out who was in control and where.

[Nick1984]

A volume histogram should show you what price the most volume was traded at. Is that what you're referring to?

[brownsfan019]

James,
I'll try to dive into these charts over the weekend. I would have last night, but had a poker game to get to.

The analysis looks sharp though, good detailed work!