YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[zeon]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	Broke 1360 with strong volume and a WRB.

Looks like the NDX is still holding support at 1825 though.

[DbPhoenix]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	Broke 1360 with strong volume and a WRB.

The difficulties lie in breaking "support" at 60, then entering what is an entire zone of support from 60 all the way down to 42 (to start). If you're already in, great. Otherwise, finding either a good entry or a good exit can be challenging.

Since the move up on the 1st was not an air pocket, there's going to be support all the way down to where that move began, if it gets that far, though it will likely be in stages.

Even with a great entry over the past day or so, the patience required here will be beyond many traders.

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	DbPhoenix
	Even with a great entry over the past day or so, the patience required here will be beyond many traders.

Very true. If trading from a daily using candlestick analysis, the 2nd short occurred on 4/7.

But if you are trading from a daily, patience is a required ingredient to success.

The question now is with 3 hours to go, are the bears in charge or are we going to see a doji/spinning top type line? Right now, we have a nice sized red down bar. Just what you want to see if short. Will it hold? Time will tell.

[smwinc]

The next week or so will be interesting.

I tend to disagree with the bearish tone of the majority of the posts here - we haven't really seen 'strong' volume in any of the US markets or European equities indexes (DAX / ESTX50) yet. Perhaps I'm a little hopeful, but I'd like some good news intraday, or an 'event', which gives some nice capitulation to the upside.

While it was negative news, NFP data on 4th April was being bought after the capitulation selling. Today (April 9th) we broke those lows. Whoever bought that negative news is now offside, I'm expecting some level of 'position protecting' tonight/tomorrow.

Verbally if we had to describe the action in the S&P, I'd say:

14th March - tested prior lows, false break.
24th March - broke the mid point, pull back into the lower quartile of the range.
3rd / 4th April - tested prior highs, false break.

We are still (well) within the WRB 01 April. The low of the S&P mini missed the 50% retracement of this minor swing down by a whisker - 2 points.

It's tricky - I'm overall bearish in the longer term, but I believe we need to see capitulation to the upside. We need everyone to get bullish again so we can move lower.

I'd like to see us head up towards 1415's in the S&P.

That would be nice clean break of this range, a 50% retracement from the high in 11 Oct 2007 to the low in 17 March 2008.
1.0 (100%) extension of the swing down 24th March (1361.5) to 31st March (1309.25) = 1413.5
.618 (61.8%) extension of the current* (assuming tonight/tomorrow we don't make a new low) swing down from 07 April (1389) to April 09 (1351.25) = 1412.25

We have an area of confluence broadly from 1410 - 1430. That is where I would be comfortable buying puts.

But perhaps I'm too optimistic. I'm sticking to daytrading that's for sure !

Good luck

[brownsfan019]

sm - interesting post but remember that you are in the CANDLESTICK CORNER. That means most analysis here is incorporating candlesticks in the analysis.

Just a heads up as to why you are seeing what you see.

[brownsfan019]

Well, thanks to GE this short is looking awfully nice so far. We'll see how today ends, but if we can end on a fairly large red bar, that will be a nice move in the direction of the trade.

ENTRY: 72.75 (AGGRESSIVE) OR 69.5 (CONFIRMATION)
CURRENT PRICE: 45.00 = +27.75 OR +24.5 ES PTS

@ $50/PT = $1387.50 OR $1225.00 PER CONTRACT TRADED

And that folks, is real money in the bank.

There's no 'is this a real sell signal' or junk like that here. We'll leave that to other parts of the forum.



Note - I did NOT take this swing trade. I wish I did now, but I did not.

[james_gsx]

More money is being made in the CL thread

ES day trading, energy markets swing trading, ES swing trading, I can smell the hedge fund money now

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	More money is being made in the CL thread ES day trading, energy markets swing trading, ES swing trading, I can smell the hedge fund money now

You said it James.

There's potential in the air... I can smell it.

Oh wait, that's just Cleveland weather.

[james_gsx]

Don't get me started on weather

Four days ago it was 70, the next day it snowed. Then it went back to 70 the next day, so what did it do yesterday? It snowed like 4 inches! By the end of the day all the snow was melted and was cloudy!

This fund is going to be run on the beach in the Cayman islands.

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	Don't get me started on weather Four days ago it was 70, the next day it snowed. Then it went back to 70 the next day, so what did it do yesterday? It snowed like 4 inches! By the end of the day all the snow was melted and was cloudy! This fund is going to be run on the beach in the Cayman islands.

Wow, you got snow. Just comfortable here.

A fund that is run where it is about 70 degrees all the time and comfortable sounds perfect.