YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[smwinc]

200 point rally in the DAX, all my Christmas's are coming at once!

That monthly chart is something worth sticking up on your wall.

(yes, I am bullish).

I've been "collecting" knock-in & deep OTM options. tasty treats all around.

Don't get me wrong, the world is still "broken", but these short-squeezing rallies are delicious. NFP this Friday will be interesting.

[brownsfan019]

ES from 4-2-08:




I really like this from a risk/reward standpoint.

We'll look at 2 possible entry points and see how it turns out:

1) AGGRESSIVE: enter now at 70.50, stop at 80.25

2) CONFIRMATION: place sell stop at 62.75 (one tick below low of spinner), stop at 80.25

Profit targets:

SHORT-TERM: 1321.25 (low of WRB and also a previous support zone)
LONG-TERM: 1270.00

All/partial contracts should be taken off between the target zones. I'd love to see 1270 retested, but that is an ambitious target no doubt.

[james_gsx]

How about this, if we break the low of the spinner tomorrow with strength then I will buy 1 ES put, or maybe even short the ES futures. (i prefer the put). By strength I mean, I don't want a hammer at the low on the 15 min the short it as that would be a dumb move. But if the market shows me the lows broke with strength then I will take the trade and post it on here.

Who is in with me?

[james_gsx]

If I may... the YM looks like a better short candidate than the ES. Reason being, it hit perfect resistance against the 100EMA, and that will prove to be a key resistance level. Compared to the ES, that could be still technically be in a range bound market. So I will enter the YM trade tonight since I'm okay with the potential $ loss.

[BlowFish]

	Quote:	brownsfan019
	ES from 4-2-08: I really like this from a risk/reward standpoint. We'll look at 2 possible entry points and see how it turns out: 1) AGGRESSIVE: enter now at 70.50, stop at 80.25 2) CONFIRMATION: place sell stop at 62.75 (one tick below low of spinner), stop at 80.25 Profit targets: SHORT-TERM: 1321.25 (low of WRB and also a previous support zone) LONG-TERM: 1270.00 All/partial contracts should be taken off between the target zones. I'd love to see 1270 retested, but that is an ambitious target no doubt.

That's the beauty of a setup on a narrow bar like this (R:R). Thr trouble with 'long wick' set ups is that you can end up with a distant stop.

[Soultrader]

	Quote:	smwinc
	200 point rally in the DAX, all my Christmas's are coming at once! That monthly chart is something worth sticking up on your wall. (yes, I am bullish). I've been "collecting" knock-in & deep OTM options. tasty treats all around. Don't get me wrong, the world is still "broken", but these short-squeezing rallies are delicious. NFP this Friday will be interesting.

Im with you on that smwinc... holding on some deep OTM options as well. Financial sectors are due to stabilize anytime as many banks and securities firm are merging.

Societe Generale and Calyon, the corporate bank of Credit Agricole have merged their brokerage activities to form a divison called Newedge.
RBS is also merging with ABN AMRO this year. I am sure there are a few more merging related talks floating around.

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	How about this, if we break the low of the spinner tomorrow with strength then I will buy 1 ES put, or maybe even short the ES futures. (i prefer the put). By strength I mean, I don't want a hammer at the low on the 15 min the short it as that would be a dumb move. But if the market shows me the lows broke with strength then I will take the trade and post it on here. Who is in with me?

The spinner's low was broken James, valid sell signal here confirmed on both entry methods.

[james_gsx]

I figured I should post a quick update. I got out of my position this morning as the ES and YM were unable to break support, and looked very weak in those areas. With 70+ pts in my pocket I didn't want to give a lot of it back, so I got out. I decided wait and see if the support broke - which it didn't - so I promptly got out. 70 pts isn't bad for a little over nighter, and overall I'm happy with my trade. I will also admit that I moved my stop at the open towards break even, mainly to eliminate the potential risk and lock in profits.

We will see how things go at the close today, if price ends up hitting my designated target then so be it. I still made money for my bottom line, and at the end of the day that's what I see on my P&L.

Unlike some people I will stick my head out and again provide proof of my trade. Accountability is a big issue on forums, and I want to show that if you properly use candlesticks with a positive risk/reward then it can pay off. Also for swing trades, it can be effective to drill down to smaller time frames to plan entries and exits. This wasn't the best trade, but it was a trade that still fit within my plan. Feel free to point out things that are wrong with it, or things that are right.

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	I figured I should post a quick update. I got out of my position this morning as the ES and YM were unable to break support, and looked very weak in those areas. With 70+ pts in my pocket I didn't want to give a lot of it back, so I got out. I decided wait and see if the support broke - which it didn't - so I promptly got out. 70 pts isn't bad for a little over nighter, and overall I'm happy with my trade. I will also admit that I moved my stop at the open towards break even, mainly to eliminate the potential risk and lock in profits. We will see how things go at the close today, if price ends up hitting my designated target then so be it. I still made money for my bottom line, and at the end of the day that's what I see on my P&L. Unlike some people I will stick my head out and again provide proof of my trade. Accountability is a big issue on forums, and I want to show that if you properly use candlesticks with a positive risk/reward then it can pay off. Also for swing trades, it can be effective to drill down to smaller time frames to plan entries and exits. This wasn't the best trade, but it was a trade that still fit within my plan. Feel free to point out things that are wrong with it, or things that are right.

I like it James. If YOUR plan called for this, then you did just fine.

In terms of a swing trade, I would remain short and only look at the dailys. Keep in mind that I do NOT hold overnight with the current volatility, so my post was purely an informational post. I did NOT take this trade in terms of the swing trade.

[james_gsx]

I would say that the potential for volatility to move against me was one of the other reasons I got out at the first sign of weakness on the 15min. Had this been a year ago when the market was going up all the time, things would be different. It looks like we might be setting up for another spinning top.