YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[Nick1984]

The ES chart from the 18th was a fantastic chart to look at for our local ASX index cause following the awesome 4+% rise following the fed it was a no brainer to immediately go long on our own markets (I did with shares though) and our markets had the biggest one day rise all year on very healthy volume! A very profitable day.

A few people at the office reckon that the US interest rate cut may signal a turn around in market confidence here in Aus but i still think we have a lot to go to get out of the woods. I'd like to see the ES back above 1400 in the near term future to settle my own mind about whether we'll be back on the way up. Somehow I can't see that happening for a long time.

[brownsfan019]

Nice little box we are in currently:

[OAC]

That is right. Despite the volatility recently, we have been going sideways since January. According to Elliot Waves, this looks like wave four after we had a three wave down since October, and most likely it will resolve itself to the downside for the final fifth wave down, if that happens, the bear market will become official because five waves down is an impulse wave. On the other hand, a fifth wave can fail and the double bottom holds, but that is the less likely scenario.

[james_gsx]

Looks like another exciting week is ahead of us. Everything is pretty much rangebound at this point, and I don't think we will see any major breakthroughs.

ES:

Like Brownsfan said, there is a nice range. I don't know if this current resistance will hold, but if prices moves to the upper range resistance at 1375 I will fade the move. If price hits support at 1250, I will fade that move too. The reason I am not doing anything now is because I don't like the R/R, since it's basically in the middle of the larger ranges. If I fade the other levels I can setup tight stops and bigger targets.





NQ:

On the weekly QQQQ calls look attractive, but at a closer look 1750 is in the middle of the range between 1700 and 1800. Therefore it's not a very attractive risk/reward for my money. The daily chart doesn't look as good as the weekly, so that's another factor. If price charges down to 1700 then I will buy calls, but if we get a slow grind that moves with the trendline then I will not do anything.





I am talking to my broker about setting up an options account to trade the options around futures. I don't like the swing trade the futures as the $ loss and reward is too big for me to stomach on a daily basis. But I can handle the options, and that will allow me to trade other markets such as oil and gold without looking for ETFs. So if that happens, then I won't use SPX or QQQQ options but the options underlying the futures instead.

Good trading this week.

[james_gsx]

Well with a successful break this morning of the resistance, along with a very strong tick sentiment I bought 1 April call @ 1370 today. The reason I got in early was due to the ticks, which showed very strong buying and confirms that this rally is legit. If we close back within the range then I will exit the trade, otherwise my target is the next 1375 resistance area.

[trader273]

Here's my take on the Dow:

[james_gsx]

The bulls have had plenty of chances to rally, and can't seem to do it. Overall it looks very bearish to me, which is why I exited my position flat today at break even.

Yesterday we had a doji after a rally, followed by confirmation today with the move lower. I think we'll test the 1325 area soon, and if that holds we could move to 1375. If not, back to the lows we go.

[trader273]

James,
I see those more as minor support/resistance. It looks like on the daily chart that price just kind of went back and forth around those levels. The levels I show on my chart are taken from the weekly chart. I think it is easier to see the SR levels on a higher time frame. But that doesnt mean to ignore the minor SR levels. Depending on how long you are looking to hold a position those minor levels could be very important.

[james_gsx]

Inverted hammer, where the wick touched resistance. Might be over with the retracement and more selling pressure from here. The more I look at this, the bulls have had plenty of chances for a strong rally, but they can't get it done. That shows a lot of weakness to me.

[james_gsx]

Hmmmm.... what's everyones thoughts on this candle for the monthly chart??