YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[brownsfan019]

James,
It's nice when you get some additional confirmations as well. I'd guess some of the other indexes look the same. Doesn't guarantee a good trade, but could help.

[james_gsx]

LEH has a hammer too, I know it's not an index but the financial's are the center of attention right now so I think that would have some impact. It's at least worth taking notice.

[TinGull]

And XLF...the Select Sector Financials spdr is showing a nice hammer with good volume to it. Oughtta be interesting.

[TinGull]

Just another chart of this long term resistance/support at 31.00

[brownsfan019]

Well fellas, sure looks like we have some bullish hammers at support levels all over the place... These will either hold and produce some nice profits or fail terribly. That's my guess at least. What I mean is, if the ES gets below 1500 AND closes below 1500, that could spell trouble in terms of any longs working. So the next few days early next week will be important. We'd love to see these hammers provide some immediate profit and not look back. It would be easy if the ES just kept doing a /\/\/\/ shape between our S/R levels. Now that is EASY money. Eventually one of these will fail due to a break, so we will see when that happens. Right now, this support level, esp on the ES looks strong. We'll see how long and how many times this level will hold.

[TinGull]

I think a more interesting level for me is the 1490 on the cash index. Note how it was a strong support area in the spring, broke it to form an inverted H&S and now can't seem to close below it, tho seems like it's trying with a lower high. If that 1490 on cash 1500/futs does get violated on volume...we've got a steep road to fall down all the way to 1380/1400.

[Nick1984]

My candle analysis is in its infancy so bear with me on this one. What I see here is a candle that was heading south towards some support but never quite touched it. It looks to me like a hammer formation with some strong volume which to me shows there there is plenty of interest from the bulls.
There is overhead resistance at the 13700 mark from the previous large up move on the 18th of September. Could be worth taking the trade as you're risking 50 points for a 100 or possibly more point move.

[TinGull]

Sounds good to me. Now, what I do is wait for the next bar because I'm not aggressive. If the next bar is up then there obviously was buying in that bar. If that strong bar is followed by low volume up bars, though...it's time to really be careful. Low volume on narrow spreads would be deadly to it. As of this writing, ES futs are down 12 bucks so it's looking like waiting for confirmation is good in this case.

[james_gsx]

Wow, what a day! I seriously considered buying ES around 1500 but since I got really sick over the weekend I knew my head wasn't clear and I didn't want to take the chance. Oh well, it happens.

I know the markets haven't closed, but I want to ask a "what-if" question. On the ES we had a bullish candle on Friday with stronger volume. Today if we were to close right now we would get a hammer with lower volume. How should I go about analyzing that? Would I assume the pros were buying yesterday, then today was a test back to 1500 where buying increased again?

Would I be correct in saying this is a bullish setup?

[TinGull]

Yup, I think its bullish. Looks like a "test" of that support...again.