YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	BlowFish
	Interesting charts brown I'd quite like to see volume too (too lazy to fire up charts on my other laptop and havent really watched the markets the last month). I suspect it (volume) is low and possibly declining if so I'd risk a short from a trend line drawn through the high of the last 4 or 5 days.

Here it is with volume BF:




So, I see 2 hammers @ support with high volume. I don't know how you might quantify high volume, but for me, that's plenty.

Currently a risk-free trade by just slightly moving stop from initial entry.


Entry based on first hammer is approx 1513.50.
Current price is approx 1546.50.

Current gain is 33 ES pts = 33 x $50 = $1650/contract.

Trade was initiated Tue (10/23) at the open.

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	OAC
	Is it that there is nothing else new under then sun ? Or there is some new tricks you can teach us ?

Here's the ultra super, uber secret...








Are YOU ready for it?
















Pay attention b/c here it comes....














The secret to great candle trading is ....screen time.

Just reading a book is not enough. Just watching a DVD is not enough. As with any good trading plan, practicing this in real-time with real analysis cannot be substituted with anything. There is no 'trick' in trading. Candlestick analysis may seem easy at first glance, but it does require work in front of charts.

That's it.

That's my trick!

[OAC]

That was super, Brown.
Since I picked up the Nison's original book, what stuck in my mind was the mid-point of the candle body and I have been looking at it ever since. It seems to be a balance point or pivot point of some kind. I just wonder if anybody did any kind of research on it ?

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	OAC
	That was super, Brown. Since I picked up the Nison's original book, what stuck in my mind was the mid-point of the candle body and I have been looking at it ever since. It seems to be a balance point or pivot point of some kind. I just wonder if anybody did any kind of research on it ?

I recall that as well, esp on the larger body candles. Not sure how strong or not it is as I really don't use it but maybe someone else can chime in.

[james_gsx]

I know I've said this before, but I kind of view trading like a professional sport. You can always be good compared to the average joe, but the only thing that can get you to the pros is PRACTICE aka screen time.

When I played soccer back in the day I was invited to play a tournament in Sweden. I had never met any of my team members before, I met them as they arrived at the hotel in Iceland. We had one week to bond then the tournament - we skipped basically every social gathering put together just to practice. Since the sun never really went down over there we practiced all night and honestly, that was the only reason why we were able to compete against the European teams who had played together their entire lives.

Sorry that was a bit OT, but I had to put in the story to get my point across that I agree with Brownsfan

[BlowFish]

Thanks for the repost Brown. I used to think it a bit of a cop out when market commentators said things like "I would be short if we break 1500". I'd think well of course you would as the market would be clearly going down! As a trader it is not necessary to predict the market if we react appropriately to what it is actually doing.

I have to say the volume is not at all what I guessed it would be - if the volume was high on the red WRB and then eased off on the last few bars it would have been quite a different picture (to me). As it is that first hammer clearly shows buyers stepping in to support that 1500 level. The red hammer a couple of bars later is telling too (its almost a doji/long legged doji). It tests the area again but on reduced volume.

Guess we'll see shortly

[brownsfan019]

One piece of advice for anyone trading this or tracking - Wed is Fed Day and this one could be interesting. Point is that holding a long with a snug stop is a risky play. It could be prudent to simply exit by the close of business Tuesday or early Wed.

Just a heads up.

Now, a pure chartist will simply just do what the chart says to do.

[TinGull]

Another thing to note via VSA...



The low volume hammer is a "test" as it ran down but was quickly brought back up towards the highs on low volume showing there was no "professional" activity to follow it through to the downside.

[brownsfan019]

Good observation Tin. I am not a VSA trader, but we both see the same thing - a test of the hammer that was defended by the bulls. Either way, the result is the same - confirmation of the previous hammer and/or a reason to initiate a position.

[TinGull]

absolutely!