Crude Oil March 20

[james_gsx]

Looks pretty bullish to me. This dragonfly doji, or hammer (whatever) looks like some buyers came in around the $100 area which should now be support. I bought a few more calls this morning and I still think oil will retest the $110 area and eventually move higher. The lows of this hammer could still be tested, and it may not spring up next week - but I still think it's a bullish setup. Thoughts?

[james_gsx]

I will admit, I got in a little early. I bought a little more on the pullback to $100 and the trade is starting to work out. The smaller bodies indicate a lack of selling to push through support, which was bullish. This goes to show that sometimes you get the candle and the trade doesn't happen immediately, you have to be patient and stick to your plan.

[trader273]

James,
Nice analysis, at least IMHO.

Here's my take:

[james_gsx]

I agree, I could have gotten in at a better price. I guess that's one thing I need to work on, I'm always afraid of missing the move. At least this time I acknowledged the move and bought at $100 again.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a small pullback tomorrow, but over the long term I believe CL is going to 125.

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	I will admit, I got in a little early. I bought a little more on the pullback to $100 and the trade is starting to work out. The smaller bodies indicate a lack of selling to push through support, which was bullish. This goes to show that sometimes you get the candle and the trade doesn't happen immediately, you have to be patient and stick to your plan.

But what a minute James!! You did not identify which candle shape was being used here for your trade b/c a hammer is not equal to a spinning top which is not equal to a doji...



Ok, sorry... Just can't believe what I am reading over in the VSA thread with 'CandleWhisper' thinking he already knows how unreliable candle patterns are. First we must start a poll here and play guess which pattern James used in this trade. Then, we can discuss the merit of the trade...

[james_gsx]

Frankly I don't care what the signal was, it's making me money. If we want to get bitchy about the candle and when I should have taken it, then we will simply look at price action alone. The fact stands, price hit support and found buyers thus moving price higher.

[BlowFish]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	Frankly I don't care what the signal was, it's making me money. If we want to get bitchy about the candle and when I should have taken it, then we will simply look at price action alone. The fact stands, price hit support and found buyers thus moving price higher.

Bingo - Price Action baby! The fact you chose a candlestick chart over bar chart over P&F the price action is clear. It hit a potential support area and reversed.

Nice trade! Did you enter on bar close with a stop below the wick? I have noticed (in index futures particularly) they will often poke through that price just to gun stops.

Cheers.

[BlowFish]

	Quote:	brownsfan019
	But what a minute James!! You did not identify which candle shape was being used here for your trade b/c a hammer is not equal to a spinning top which is not equal to a doji...

Brown, so really you aren't using candles at all except as a method to portray price over time? Or is it just one knows or agrees on what they are called or what there characteristics are Tell us what you look for rather than just poking at the VSA guys (I'm pretty sure I know as it happens but it would be helpful to others I'm sure).

So really it boils down to the fact you find candles aesthetically more pleasing? Thats a genuine question btw.

Cheers.

[trader273]

James,
What is your exit strategy on this trade? Are you looking for the highs, new highs? I saw that you think oil is going to $125, are you just waiting for that?

[trader273]

Also what is interesting is how Natural Gas, Heating Oil, and Crude Oil all produced similar candle patterns. I do not want to say exact since I did not run exact numbers, so I do not know if the upper shadow on one market was 1 tick higher than what is allowed. But IMHO, they all produced the same formation. However, it is interesting that only crude made it back to support. Since crude is the market we are trading in, I think it is ok that heating oil and nat gas didn't make it back to support. Since these other markets produced similar candle formations, it reinforces the crude oil trade. This is very simple analysis. No need for other stuff clogging up your screen. However, people confuse simple with easy. Not easy at all. It is hard to believe that simple analysis can work and is very powerful. I think that is why people come up with all these crazy ways of seeing the market.

Chart: