Crude Oil March 20

[james_gsx]

Trader273 - I was looking at HO and NG as well before making the trade, and they did confirm for me. As with the CL trade, I'm exiting a small portion right now and the rest I will exit when price hits $110. I think CL is going to $125, but that's for another trade

This was just a simple S/R trade with my entry based on candles. As I said, my stop would be to CLOSE below $100. I have noticed that CL will dip through lows etc during trading hours to blow out stops, just to retrace back above/below support/resistance. We did it several times before an actual close above $100. Once the close above $100 came, it all took off.

Edit: I got out of the April call, and now I'm just holding onto some longer term calls. I don't think price will scream to $110, and it looks like today is producing a spinning top, so we might pull back again. The reason for selling the April call was to lock in a small profit, and let the rest of the trade mature.

[trader273]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	As I said, my stop would be to CLOSE below $100.

Do you have, what I call, a catastrophe stop? Oil is a very volatile contract. I think it was up almost $5 yesterday, same thing can happen on the downside too.

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	Frankly I don't care what the signal was, it's making me money. If we want to get bitchy about the candle and when I should have taken it, then we will simply look at price action alone. The fact stands, price hit support and found buyers thus moving price higher.

That was my point in the VSA thread but candlew feels like getting into a pissing match about what it was technically called. I apologize James if my humor was lost in this thread. Just tired of newbies saying something doesn't work when they obviously do not have a freakin clue...

You now get it - the name of the candle is IRRELEVANT. Remember when you first got into candles? Now look at your work here. WOW. That's all I can say. YOU GET IT. Many here do not and will not.

	Quote:	BlowFish
	Brown, so really you aren't using candles at all except as a method to portray price over time? Or is it just one knows or agrees on what they are called or what there characteristics are Tell us what you look for rather than just poking at the VSA guys (I'm pretty sure I know as it happens but it would be helpful to others I'm sure). So really it boils down to the fact you find candles aesthetically more pleasing? Thats a genuine question btw. Cheers.

BF - excellent deductions as usual.

I like candle charts b/c my eyes are trained on them. I know what to look for and while the book definition may call a pattern a spinning top, I just might call it a hammer. Oh well.

It's about what you see and the characteristics. You got it. I see a bullish looking candle at some support, high volume, etc. and I am going to consider going long there.

And from that point it's trade management as James_gsx is doing here.

PS
You going to play combat grounds this next round?

[james_gsx]

At first today looked like it would be a doji which worried me, but price moved higher and closed above the ambush zone. So that looks bullish to me and I'm leaving my other options open until $110. Still might see a pullback before then, but that's my target for these remaining calls.



One thing I do need to learn though is better risk management with options. I don't like buying naked calls all the time, and I would like to expand on that aspect of my business. Does anyone have any recommendations? I have read far too many options websites and they all say the same thing over and over, I guess I need more experience?

[james_gsx]

Well... I'm glad I sold a little bit a few days ago

Let's look at the monthly chart since we finished that last night. It doesn't look too pretty from a CA perspective..

[trader273]

No it does not look to pretty for longs right now. However, that monthly high, looks like 110 could become a very important level. I could see a test up to those highs, now what its going to do there is left to people with a crystal ball. So I would wait to see if they take up to test the highs or bring it back down to the previous support level.

[james_gsx]

I think the close above or below $100 will be crucial.

[trader273]

my take on oil:

[trader273]

Looks good so far:

[trader273]

Update CL analysis.