Trader P/L 2010

[gooni]

Originally Posted by method Intraday short turned out to be an overnight one. The market looks surprisingly dull. It's either going to make a huge downward move or shoot straight up. It's just calm before the storm methinks returned about 45 euros on the dax. btw for some reason I have two accounts on this forum- eric341 & this one. I'll be using this one from now onwards

What's that you're trading there that moves 1 EUR for every point in the DAX? Looks good!

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by Dinerotrader If you wouldn't mind sharing your experience with the various futures you trade, what is the largest lot amount you think you could trade on the following futures without having to conceal your trading size from others or without moving the price. In other words, how large can my lot size be on these futures and still trade them like I trade a 1 lot size? Oil Soybeans Russel ES 6E I was considering this today and thought I was a bit out of my league in trying to make a good educated guess. Is there some sort of rule of thumb you can use related to daily volume?

IMO the daily volume is only a part of the equation as that volume includes overnight trading. It also is a function of WHEN you are trading - if you trade during high volume times, then you can trade size accordingly. If you trade when it's slow and dead, you can't push too much.

During the high volume times, I think you could do the following:

Oil: 100
Soybeans: 50
Russel: 100-200
ES: 250-1000
6E: 100

And those are ballparks - so while I think you could trade a 100 in the CL, during high volume moves you could probably push that more.

Also this is a function of HOW you enter. If you are all-in at one price and one price only, then you might have to come down a bit on those numbers. But if you can stagger in, then I think you could do that. For example, if the goal is to get long 100 CL, you could buy 25 ct's @ 4 levels or send a mkt order for 25, wait, send a 15 lot order, then a 30, etc.

The good news is that you can literally make a good living trading 1-2 ct's if you wanted. I know it's nice to think about 50 or 100 lot orders but it is nice to know that you do not have to do that.

[method]

Gooni - CFDs. They are like futures but much less leveraged, which is good for beginners with low capital I guess. Last time I checked they were illegal in the US.

Hopefully I can start trading the real deal soon.

[subterfuge]

Originally Posted by method Gooni - CFDs. They are like futures but much less leveraged, which is good for beginners with low capital I guess. Last time I checked they were illegal in the US. Hopefully I can start trading the real deal soon.

Looks like a CMC screenshot to me? I used to use them.
Good trading.

[Marsupilami]

Originally Posted by edabreu Caught some good moves today.

Wow, outstanding, considering you were trading just one contract each time !

[subterfuge]

nice day.
One of my better days. As always just 1 contract.
+517

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 Oil: 100 Soybeans: 50 Russel: 100-200 ES: 250-1000 6E: 100 And those are ballparks - so while I think you could trade a 100 in the CL, during high volume moves you could probably push that more.

Maybe a % of the number of contracts traded as a function of a short term MA would be more accurate.
Yesterdays # of contracts traded from the CME:
ZC 125K
ZS 89K
ZW 32K
GBP 89K
CAD 60K
EUR 242K
JPY 109K
ES 1565K
NQ 241K
YM 112K
CL 245K
GC 121K

Some of the above are estimates but it seems that the actual and the estimates are within 10%.

Note also that the volume depends on the time of day so that has to be taken into account as well.

For example if you take ES with a daily volume of 1565K and ZS with 89K >>ZS trades about 5% of the number of contracts ES trades.
You can compare T&S numbers and derive a number to trade from there.

Gabe

[Dinerotrader]

1/8/10: +890

The russel was frustrating today. I finally had to take 2 contracts on a primo position and wait it out. Natural gas had one of those "gimmie" trades BF talks about. Had to quit early today with all the year end work to do. Very happy with my trading today.

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by Gabe2004 Maybe a % of the number of contracts traded as a function of a short term MA would be more accurate. Yesterdays # of contracts traded from the CME: ZC 125K ZS 89K ZW 32K GBP 89K CAD 60K EUR 242K JPY 109K ES 1565K NQ 241K YM 112K CL 245K GC 121K Some of the above are estimates but it seems that the actual and the estimates are within 10%. Note also that the volume depends on the time of day so that has to be taken into account as well. For example if you take ES with a daily volume of 1565K and ZS with 89K >>ZS trades about 5% of the number of contracts ES trades. You can compare T&S numbers and derive a number to trade from there. Gabe

I disagree.

As I said you cannot simply take a fixed % of overall volume to find what size you can trade. That makes the assumption that the volume being traded is fixed and WHEN you trade is irrelevant, which we know is false.

How many contracts you can max out on is 100% a function of WHEN that trade is being put on, regardless of the overall daily volume.

Trade during high volume times = more you can trade w/ no influence on the market

Trade during low volume times = the easier your hand is shown to those looking for someone to exploit

Not only does it need to be taken into account, it's the primary reason of determining when you can trade size or not. It's the ONLY thing that matters if you are looking to max out size if you want to hide your hand as the original question asked.

[Dinerotrader]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 IMO the daily volume is only a part of the equation as that volume includes overnight trading. It also is a function of WHEN you are trading - if you trade during high volume times, then you can trade size accordingly. If you trade when it's slow and dead, you can't push too much. During the high volume times, I think you could do the following: Oil: 100 Soybeans: 50 Russel: 100-200 ES: 250-1000 6E: 100 And those are ballparks - so while I think you could trade a 100 in the CL, during high volume moves you could probably push that more. Also this is a function of HOW you enter. If you are all-in at one price and one price only, then you might have to come down a bit on those numbers. But if you can stagger in, then I think you could do that. For example, if the goal is to get long 100 CL, you could buy 25 ct's @ 4 levels or send a mkt order for 25, wait, send a 15 lot order, then a 30, etc. The good news is that you can literally make a good living trading 1-2 ct's if you wanted. I know it's nice to think about 50 or 100 lot orders but it is nice to know that you do not have to do that.

The big problem I see with entering at higher volume times with a larger order is you don't know if that volume will dry up and you will be left trying to exit a position with very few trades happening.

Taking this further; once I get my 100 lot order in on the CL, my understanding is that I also have to figure out how to conceal my stop loss from other seeing it or a large trader might close in to stop me out. Does that mean I can't have my stop loss sitting on my DOM for execution?