Trader P/L 2009

bathrobe · #**891** 09-15-2009, 11:17 PM

Originally Posted by brownsfan019

BR - for those of us slower ones out here, mind explaining what that chart is showing?

Brownsfan, here is a chart with selling and buying volume spikes and troughs below the Market Volume Selling-Buying Volume histogram.

I find the spike in both volume and selling volume right before 14:40 while buying volume stayed relatively flat; or at least nothing to alert anyone to anything interesting underway.

I find the breakdown of volume extremely interesting, and along with price action it is what I use most.

Hope you find it interesting,

Chris

P.S. I will try to look into the rest of the volume based indicators offered and will let you guys know when I do.

P.P.S My infrequent posts on this thread lately are due to a commitment to my family's business I had made quite a while ago. fwiw.

BrianNC · #**892** 09-16-2009, 10:27 AM

Sim trading. This is trade I entered last night at 3am and it hit my target at 6:41 while I was in bed. 15 minute chart. Ignore the trade on the left of the chart. That is the trade I did yesterday and already posted about.

I had a buy stop set at 2 ticks above the previous high before the entry (ellipse) at 1049.25. I used 2 ticks just as more of a confirmation of the breakthrough than 1 tick. A consolidation had developed since yesterday. I didn't have a sell stop due to a lot of support from below and the overall picture (I erased some of my lines to make the trade clearer). I had a 2 point target (since right now that is all I am going for, a consistent 2 points) and it was just below the previous high from yesterday at the top line on the chart anyway.

Anyone else trading S/R could tell me what a higher upside target would have been why? Thanks.

Dinerotrader · #**893** 09-16-2009, 12:43 PM

Originally Posted by thalestrader

Here is FNET with horizontal lines at the levels of your two buys (I am assuming you traded this from the long side).

How did you decide to take these trades?

Best Wishes,

Thales

I think a good way for me to judge a trade entry will be to ask the question, "will I be ashamed to explain this entry reasoning to thales".

1st Entry
The 1st entry I am ashamed of. FNET had a lot of excitement and after watching TIV go up 200% the other day I think I was just looking to buy a pullback instead of watch for a good breakout. There was a little bit of up tempo in price so I bought in and the price just stayed in the downward channel.

2nd Entry
This one I am more comfortable with my entry. I say the channel break and price crossed a recent high from the channel. I tried to let the trade run along and moved my stop to breakeven.

This chart shows some more defined channel breaks I could have taken for a possible small gain if I had trailed closely. The morning offered the best buys but I have a huge problem in that I can only start trading 2 hours after the market has opened. Once daylight savings time changes, I will be able to start trading 20 minutes into the market and I will focus more on higher high breakouts.

I'm not taking any daytrades today since all my swing trades are riding up with the market. I'll try to firm up my trading rules and policies today.

Thales, thanks for asking.

bathrobe · #**894** 09-16-2009, 02:30 PM

Pretty sick today, had to scratch most contracts/+1tick. I should have not traded today.

BrianNC · #**895** 09-16-2009, 02:33 PM

Originally Posted by bathrobe

Pretty sick today, had to scratch most contracts/+1tick. I should have not traded today.

I wish I was that sick!

bathrobe · #**896** 09-16-2009, 03:35 PM

Actually, the more I think about it, today was a HUGE mistake, in my plan I do not trade when not 100%. I was motivated by greed, not a lot of free days to trade lately so when I have one I want to make it count, not sleep in.

Had I lost on the other hand I would be sicker.

bathrobe · #**897** 09-16-2009, 03:43 PM

Attached is another chart from MarketVolume.com

thalestrader · #**898** 09-16-2009, 08:12 PM

Originally Posted by imorgan

This chart shows some more defined channel breaks ... Once daylight savings time changes... I will focus more on higher high breakouts.

Hi imorgan,

Perhaps you would consider looking for stocks behaving as WFR did today. This is a common occurrence, and in many ways it is exactly the same as FNET yesterday only different.

Both stocks had early, strong moves, and each offered three buy points. Now, here is a caution, the third buy point off of any base usually finds that the rally out of that base is completely retraced or more. Therefore, when you have a strong move, either up or down, where two narrow consolidations at the highs breakout to new sustained highs, I typically do not buy the third breakout. This applies to intraday rallies as well as daily and even weekly charts. Late stage bases tend to be weak. The traders who had bought the first two breakouts are usually selling on the way out of the third breakout. If the third does not retrace, and the stock offers a fourth, I will sell into that fourth breakout.

Both FNET yesterday and WFR today offered three buy points. The first two led to positive results. The third breakouts stalled and a correction ensued. This much is almost scripted. Everyday, day after day you will see stocks behaving like this (for both rallies and declines). Here is where they are different: FNET's correction never ceased, and the stock never saw a new high. WFR, on the other hand, traced out a patter that some might call a "cup with handle." You can call it "macaronie and cheese" for all it matters. The point is that the stock recovered and made new highs. It did so at 12:35 EDT, more than three hours after the open. You will find these stocks breaking to new intraday highs after 12 noon. The often do so on the half-hour (12:30, 1:30, 2:30, 3:30). The time is not a requirement, just sharing an observation.

For a day trade, you have a fixed, limited time. Why bother messing around with buy or sell points that may or may not lead to desired new highs or new lows? Be patient. Be demanding (but not too demanding or you will create a trading checklist that will forever keep you out of the market).

Others may differ, and perhaps you will too, but the channels you are drawing do not look particular useful to me.

Also, I may only close about 38% of my stock trades with a profit. But, if I simply wanted to trade for tiny 5-10-15 penny moves, I could close a much, much higher percentage of my trades for a profit. In other words, most of my trades show a 5-15 penny profit soon after entry. My willingness to see which will go for a dollar necessitates that I allow many of these small profits to run to a small loss. I suspect that these channel breaks you are using here will perhaps lead you to a similar winning% as me, i.e. approx 38%. But your average profit will likely be much too small to overcome your high % of losses. Why? Because you are buying into resistance. As with FNET, many of these stocks will not go on to make new intraday highs, which means you will experience fewer runners.

You are new. Why start bad habits right from the beginning? I will tell you from personal experience, bad habits inculcated today will be damaging to you for many years to come. Why put yourself through that? I did. I hate to use such language, but frankly, it sucks.

Best Wishes,

Thales

thalestrader · #**899** 09-16-2009, 08:39 PM

Originally Posted by thalestrader

Now, here is a caution, the third buy point off of any base usually finds that the rally out of that base is completely retraced or more.

Here is today's ES. I posted a series of charts showing the ES making a series of higher highs throughout the day in the "Reading Charts in Real Time" thread. This shows the ES repeating a reliable breakout pattern four times during today's session. However, you want to get in the first or second breakout to new session highs, probably refrain from most third breakouts (though today's worked), and refuse to buy the fourth. In fact, if you are still long from an earlier buy, set a sell limit to liquidate at the waht would be the fourth breakout point's buy stop, and you will find yourself often liquidating at or near the high tick of the session. I had to leave early today, so I closed my long about a point below the third breakout point.

Best Wishes,

Thales

Gabe2004 · #**900** 09-16-2009, 09:53 PM

To cure the tendancy of anticipating a reversal (which I do too often) I started to play with the chartgame.com. It was mentioned by DB somewhere.
I think that it has the potential - after many hours - to reverse this tendancy and maybe allow one to leave the profitable trades to run (another thing which I don't do yet)

Gabe