Jonbig04's Log

jonbig04 · #**632** 10-21-2009, 01:28 AM

Just some more foresight analysis. Marking my trades and explaining my reasoning for them in foresight really helps me keep everything in perspective.

Not that arbitrary time frames like days, weeks, or months matter, but I'm hoping to really smash my goal this month. I'm at or near +20ES so far, so one more good trade will really send me over the top. Its exciting not because its a good month (month being a random time frame really), but because I'm making trades this month that I wouldn't have made last month. That is exciting for me.

jonbig04 · #**633** 10-21-2009, 09:33 PM

A wild day. The market yet again found R at the upper end of the range and made a perfect double top at 98.5, forget the assymetric first peak. Technically the DT confirmed, but did it really? Check the zoomed in view of the action at S.

A massive vol spike, and price takes the S at 77.5. But as you can see, the buyers came in and pushed back to S within 4 or 5 minutes. Not what I call I break out. To me, it looks like a stop run. Everyone and their grandmother had their stops below 77, and they all got owned. So what to do?

There doesn't appear to be any real acceptance below 77.5 besides the spike, leading one to think that maybe S is at 77.5 still. Then again, price has stalled at 77 (price doesn't move right now anyway though) maybe the sellers will try to flip it to R? Who knows. I'm going to wait.

If price drops and makes a lower low, that will suck becasuse I won't catch any of it, but at least we got to see the DT pan out. If price rallies back up into the range I will just pretend like this spike doesn't exist, keep my S at 77.5 and wait for price to break below it again, hopefully with real conviction this time (though I will be more cautious shorting below 77.5, really would have to see buyers laying down). The good news is that our double top is gorgeous and there could be a nice BO to the upside if price breaks 98.5.

jonbig04 · #**634** 10-23-2009, 12:41 AM

Market bitch slapped me today. I took 2 stops. Oh yea, this is why my average R/R is 1:7 lol.

Anyway the first trade looks stupid, I basically shorted the LOD

. When you're trying to play a break out below S, thats always a possibility. Sure makes you feel like an ass though haha. Basically the market found S again at same spot in found it yesterday (in that big spike), right around 1072.50. But price stalled after headed back down. Some volume came in and buyers started to lay down, I shorted and they came back with a vengeance and owned me. Bastards. I then shorted the previous R around 1080 and actually got a good entry, but buyers wanted it back up into the range so I got owned again.

I probably should have waited for a little more confirmation on the BO play, but its a risk I was willing to take. The other short I am ok with too, just didn't pan out. Stupid day to short haha.

We're almost back up to the top of the range. Hopefully this end will be a little more cooperative. I'll me looking for shorts up here and keeping an eye out for a potential BO if price takes 98.5.

jonbig04 · #**635** 10-26-2009, 11:53 PM

Took a stop and a B/E. Darn whiplashing market.

jonbig04 · #**636** 10-27-2009, 08:10 PM

jonbig04 · #**637** 10-28-2009, 08:52 PM

Can't seem to catch this break down. Every time I short I get shaken out some how some way.

brownsfan019 · #**638** 10-29-2009, 09:32 AM

Jon - from a risk management perspective, have you looked at or tested how many bullets to fire before you just shut it down? For example, I will take 3-4 trades per market and that's about it. If I can't get in sync w/ the market after 4 trades, I'm obviously wrong that day. It's purely a risk management technique, nothing to do with the trade setup. I know my setups work when combined with some risk filters.

This is also a reason why I do not exclusively focus on 1 market and 1 market only. If I'm not feeling it in market 1, I have plenty of others to pick up the slack.

Just an observation b/c I've been where you've been on this recent chart - while in hindsight it looks like your level is a good level, it's easy to buy/sell/buy/sell repeat process till you just get tossed around.

jonbig04 · #**639** 10-30-2009, 02:43 AM

Originally Posted by brownsfan019

Jon - from a risk management perspective, have you looked at or tested how many bullets to fire before you just shut it down? For example, I will take 3-4 trades per market and that's about it. If I can't get in sync w/ the market after 4 trades, I'm obviously wrong that day. It's purely a risk management technique, nothing to do with the trade setup. I know my setups work when combined with some risk filters.

This is also a reason why I do not exclusively focus on 1 market and 1 market only. If I'm not feeling it in market 1, I have plenty of others to pick up the slack.

Just an observation b/c I've been where you've been on this recent chart - while in hindsight it looks like your level is a good level, it's easy to buy/sell/buy/sell repeat process till you just get tossed around.

Thanks BF, and I know what you mean. that 57 level got chopped by opening volatility and now seems to be useless.

I still feel alright about the trades though, at least for now. 57 had been S that previous day and it bounced enough for me to buy it. When that trade was stopped I assumed a bigger break down was in store. I shorted hoping to ride some momentum, but was able to get out quickly when none really showed up. The lack of momentum lead me to believe price wanted to retest 57 from underneath, hence the other short. I was surprised when that didn't work. The market opened a few minutes later and chopped up the level. I don't know if it was because of the open or not. Anyways, for better or worse that was my train of thought. Sucks staying up all night and having nothing to show for it!

brownsfan019 · #**640** 10-30-2009, 01:48 PM

Originally Posted by jonbig04

Thanks BF, and I know what you mean. that 57 level got chopped by opening volatility and now seems to be useless.

I still feel alright about the trades though, at least for now. 57 had been S that previous day and it bounced enough for me to buy it. When that trade was stopped I assumed a bigger break down was in store. I shorted hoping to ride some momentum, but was able to get out quickly when none really showed up. The lack of momentum lead me to believe price wanted to retest 57 from underneath, hence the other short. I was surprised when that didn't work. The market opened a few minutes later and chopped up the level. I don't know if it was because of the open or not. Anyways, for better or worse that was my train of thought. Sucks staying up all night and having nothing to show for it!

I know what you mean - I shoulda just stayed in bed today. But it's the cost of doing business and you take the losses/scratches with the gains and move on. As long as those losses are reasonable, it all works out in the end.

Good work on the journal.