Jonbig04's Log

jonbig04 · #**611** 09-07-2009, 03:12 PM

I'm working with ninja to get this problem fixed so I don't keep wasting money by re-entering.

HAL9000 · #**612** 09-07-2009, 05:04 PM

Hi Jonbig,

while I don't know about your Ninja problem (BTW, is it sim or real?),
and don't know about your charts,
I have just loaded the ones, I would load up for the ES currently,
and taken the one that would have fitted to yours, based on the resolution.

Its just for comparison, and FWIW.

Regards,

Hal

jonbig04 · #**613** 09-07-2009, 06:07 PM

Sorry, my data didn't update for some reason, thanks for pointing that out! still working on the other ninja problem, and obviously I didn't re-enter the short. I was out for -0.5 ES.

jonbig04 · #**614** 09-08-2009, 12:20 AM

Some possible price paths...I wish... lol

jonbig04 · #**615** 09-08-2009, 06:03 PM

lol today was so stupid. No trades, same game plan for tomorrow.

Come on market lets MOVE!

jonbig04 · #**616** 09-11-2009, 12:16 AM

Feelin' some adversity this month. Gotta step it up!

jonbig04 · #**617** 09-17-2009, 01:51 AM

No levels, no trades.

As I was writing that ES spiked up to 1070. DAMN!

Wish this thing would PB so I could trade

jonbig04 · #**618** 09-17-2009, 01:21 PM

No levels, no trades.

Wish this thing would PB so I could trade

jonbig04 · #**619** 09-23-2009, 04:09 PM

Been journal slack. Market has been in new territory for me so I decided to give some time to develop some PA I could go off of.

jonbig04 · #**620** 10-14-2009, 02:52 AM

Sorry for not updating this journal. I really have no excuse. I didn't get to trade for the first few weeks of september, so I guess I just got into the habit of not updating. I've also been working on something I wanted to get right before I shared it. Anyways I will try to get it back on track. things are progressing much the same. Made a few noob trades, few BE's, and a few large wins, same ole stuff. EXCEPT:

For anyone following along in the journal you know that me trying to make my "test 1 " trades more effective has been a common refrain. For me, a test one is just a first test of a level in that day or a few days. So I guess it's not a first test at all, but usually its been a while since price has tested it or price has broken out above it and I'm playing the flip of it. For example, say price has found R 3 times at 1,000, then break above it with force to, say, 1010. I then wait for a potential retrace back down to 1000 before buying it. The funny thing about test one trades is that you are almost always counter trend in relation to the trend of that day. It's somewhat counter intuitive in that way.

Anyways the hardest part about these trades is the damn entries. I was always getting stopped to the tick, or missing fill by a few ticks, or getting stopped out BE. I was stuck in the age old price risk vs information risk dilemma and could see no way out. I would like to point out that even with those problems, if one simply holds onto their winners, test 1 plays are easily profitable over time. So here's what I've been doing. Thalestrader helped me out with this too. I couldn't simply wait for more confirmation because then I just get crappy fill and I'll get stopped even when the trade works. I also couldn't just enter more aggressively because then it would be falling knife city. There is/was no silver bullet. I just have to use the PA around the time of entry to gain an edge over the price risk/ info risk dilemma. So, once again thanks to thales, here's what I've began doing:

(This is all on a 5 sec chart so the HH's or LL's are micro.) I wait for price to get near my level (FWIW I have alerts set up a few points away. Until then I'm usually not paying that much attention) then I wait for a nice volume spike. This activity lets me know that something important may be about to happen. Very often I find that price, before heading the other way, reaches its highest or lowest point on a volume spike. Many times there are a few spikes though. Once that happens, I wait. Assume I'm looking for a short. I have found that many times price doesn't just get rejected and peace out the other way immediately, rather it stalls for a few minutes. I wait to see if price is going to retake the high made by that spike. If it does, thats OK, but I'm more suspicious now. As of now I'm willing to let it happen once, but if price makes 2 higher highs I just let it go and stay away. But ideally price just consolidates below that spike for 5-20 min. I then note the micro range that has been created by this consolidation and place a sell limit below it, with my stop a stock above the high created by the spike. Price dicks around for a little while, then begins it's decent, stopping me in with a protected stop. Or it jets off the other way and I avoid the stop.

My stop is protected because I've seen more information to show me where R is (maybe even to the tick) and that its for real so less falling knives, but price also has to break out of the consolidation range in my direction for me to get fill. So ideally I'm getting the best of both worlds.

Of course this strat isn't perfect. I'll still get stopped to the tick. I'll still buy falling knives, but it's made my entries less arbitrary and more dynamic and PA based. I sill have kinks to work out, like the size of the range and the size of my stop. But I believe I have a good starting point and should be able to nail some more of those test 1 trades. I've only been using this for a week. I've used it on 2 trades. One I took a stop, but it allowed me to get a much better entry and if the market had kept going my way it would have worked, when if I had been using my old strat I would have been stopped out immediately. The next time I used it I was able to catch a monster that I wouldn't have otherwise been able to catch. So far so good. But only time will tell if I can make this work more effectively. It's a start!