GammaJammer

Having picked an ok entry level in EUR/GBP, I am now thinking that the time may have come to take the money and run on this one.

Looks like we have had limited follow through on the M+S and Wimpey news this A.M. (despite Wimpey stock being down something like 55% at one point earlier, not sure where it is right now). With the cross having topped out so far bang on that upper fibo level, and with cable having performed a neat volte face post the ADP number, taking out all the weak shorts...

The old market adage of "Buy the rumour, sell the fact" holds true more often than you would think. And drilling down into the seemingly stellar UK retail sales numbers this morning I'm wondering if this phenomenon might be about to rear it's head. With enough people talking about the large component that's food and weather related in this months number, I reckon that today's brutal move post the numbers could well be overdone.

With this in mind, and wanting as always to...

Once again we approach a weekend of uncertainty. Once again everyone has a theory on what they see happening. Once again a lot of these theories are people talking their books.

I am largely square going into this, so I don't have a book to talk really, and am therefore happy to share a little of what occurs to me as I end the day. Thoughts in no special order.

1) Talk I've heard today has been of action / words being more likely to be on commodities than on currencies....

I have seen a few bits and pieces of research lately suggesting that key correlations are no longer functioning as well as they might. Certainly if the macro community is anything to go by this seems to be causing people pain.

With this in mind, I started doing a bit of digging tonight and usd/jpy piqued my interest. In short, one historically reasonable correlation (with the US 2s/10s spread) remains at very acceptable levels, while another (vs the VIX - front month futures in this...

I just pulled up weekly charts of both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY to compare - they paint very different pictures. Watch this space.....