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Pivot,
Could a No Demand bar be viewed as a bar that foreshadows a continuation pattern? |
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This is a very tricky question. The short answer would be yes, however. What you need to keep in mind is the most basic definition of No Demand/No Supply. A bar/candle with volume less than the previous two bars/candles closing up (or equal) from the previous bar/candle for No Demand. And closing down or equal for No Supply.
Using the base definition, many bars/candles fall into the category. This is one reason I look for those that fall within the body of a WRB or shadow of a Long Shadow.
Also note that this is why TG only paints No Demand/No Supply on certain bars. The ones where the next bar confirms a No Demand, for example, by closing down. Yet, when Todd speaks of a bar, he will call it No Demand as soon as it closes.
Joel Pozen paints almost every low volume bar (volume less than the previous two). These are the only
VSA signs on his charts, but even still the chart can get cluttered with them. Many times a No Demand will paint but the next bar will be up. This does not change the fact that the bar was No Demand from a base definition point of view, but it does create multiple signs and belies the really important ones.
But back to your question, they are going to show up in both reversal and continuation situations. Location and context determine which.
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Also, when we talk about excessive volume, are we just talking about volume relative to the past few bars or are we trying to say that it is 2, 3 or 4 times the average volume (intraday)? And if so, how would we measure the average volume? Would the average of past 50 bars be good enough? |
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Both. We look at volume in relation to the previous 1,2 or 3 bars. We also look at an individual volume histogram in relation to all previous bar on the chart that can be seen at the time.
We also look at the individual volume histogram by itself. Here we are looking at actual size (amount does not matter). A 30 period moving average can be used to determine if volume is greater than average or less than average. If you put a 2.0 standard deviation of that 30 average on the chart as well, then you could call all volume histogram bars greater than that line high. You could also place a 3.0 standard deviation of the average on the chart and call all volume histogram bars greater than that Ultra High Volume. This is basically what TG does.
Now, a volume histogram bar can be both Ultra High (greater than the 3 standard deviation line) and Low Volume (less than the previous two volume histogram bars).